US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) has not been released yet, and the current expectation is lower than the previous value.

The previous value was 15.1, and the expected value is 13.5.
Lower than the previous value is bullish for the crypto market, higher than the previous value is bearish for the crypto market.
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) good = Crypto market is going to take a hit?
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) being poor = beneficial for the crypto market?
What is the principle? Let's understand the logic of dog farm harvesting.
Jargon: US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) explosion = The Federal Reserve will tighten = Betting table chips become more expensive = Cryptocurrency investors are being uprooted.
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) = The Federal Reserve will print money = Free chips at the gambling table = The house is forced to pump up the price
.
1. Good NFP, Bad NFP, Transmission Logic
1. The good transmission chain of US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) (the US dollar is the crypto industry's father)
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) surge → Unemployment rate ↓ → Wages rise ↑ → Inflation pressure ↑ → Federal Reserve raises interest rates ↑ → Dollar becomes more expensive → Risk assets (crypto) are drained
.
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) transmission chain (liquidity is the mother of the crypto world)
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is poor → Unemployment rate ↑ → Economic recession warning → Fed interest rate cut expectations ↑ → Dollar depreciation → Hot money flows into risk assets → Cryptocurrency market becomes the biggest winner
.
Survivor's Guide to Non-Farm Night
*【Spot Player】
Position Control: Do not exceed 40% of total funds for the position, leave enough for sub-orders.
Top up: Wait for stabilization signals (for example, closing above 83,000 this week) to appropriately increase positions.
*[Contract Players]
Deleveraging position:
Don't go all in with heavy positions, pay attention to risks, and consider not opening contracts.
Take profit and stop loss must be included:
The stop-loss and take-profit suggestions are within a range of ±0.5% behind key resistance.
For example, Bitcoin can go up by 400 points, and Ethereum can go up by 10 points.
.
Set your stop-loss and take-profit orders properly, or you might find it hard to escape.
Don't play "All In", especially during the early morning market as it can be volatile.
.
Simple way to look at data for stealing a chicken:
1. Before the data is released
Check exchange contract positions:
When the long-short ratio is >1.2, place a reverse order in advance.
.
2. Moment of Data Release
Situation 1: New jobs > 300,000
→ Go long on more positions, target the previous low -3%, set the stop loss at the high point before the data
Situation 2: New jobs < 150,000
→ After the first wave of rising, chase the long position when it pulls back, and set the stop loss at the previous low point before the data.
.
3. 4 hours after the data is released
Observe the divergence between BTC and the Nasdaq trends:
→ Nasdaq rises, BTC falls = Institutions abandon coins for stock selection → Continue to be bearish
→ Nasdaq falls, BTC rises = Independent market in the crypto world → Increase positions in altcoins
.
Three, the laws of metaphysics
In the past 12 non-farm payroll nights, Bitcoin has moved in the opposite direction 9 times within 4 hours after the data was released. ( When the data is good, it falls first and then rises; when the data is bad, it rises first and then falls. ) The real direction comes after 1 AM.
.
In 63% of the months, the BTC trend on Non-farm Payrolls night is opposite to the data direction.
Within two hours after the data is released, the "dog trap" must appear (false breakout) (
If the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) data is released on Friday, there will be a big fluctuation + spike over the weekend.
.
4. Uncommon Sense Traps (Only Experienced Investors Understand)
1. Poor US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) does not equal rising cryptocurrency prices: If CPI exceeds expectations at the same time, it may trigger "stagflation panic," causing BTC to plummet.
2. Data falsification suspicion: When the US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) is far below expectations but the labor participation rate declines simultaneously, it could be a "fake drop"; beware of market makers luring in buyers and then reversing.
3. Unemployment Rate Paradox: Unemployment rate rises but hourly wage growth exceeds 5% → Bearish (persistent inflation), short BTC/long gold
.
Reminder:
The non-farm data is just an appetizer; the real knife is the CPI data released afterward.
Remember the mnemonic
US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) good → wait for CPI to make a move, US Non-farm Payrolls (NFP) bad → wait for the Fed to ease, it's all a gamble anyway, might as well follow the big players and ride the waves~