Many analysts say that a big market for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (FED) is coming in June and July. Personally, I think it's not easy. Don't forget the impact of Japan's interest rate hike.

The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike plan in 2025 mainly focuses on July and September-October, with expectations to gradually raise the interest rate from the current level to 0.75% in phases, and possibly further increase to 1.00% in early 2026.

Looking back at the interest rate hikes on July 31 last year and January 24 this year, in the week or so following these two hikes, the vast majority of long positions were essentially buried. This risk cannot be ignored. If this year you stick to shorting at highs and reduce your long positions, I believe your survival rate will significantly increase.