🔥🔥🔥Currently, the US stock market and the crypto market are showing a sluggish trend. In stark contrast, gold prices are rising strongly, reaching historical highs. The trading volume across the entire market is extremely weak, even more so than the phase commonly regarded as "garbage time" by market participants in 2023 and 2024, clearly reflecting the extremely low willingness of investors to buy and sell. From the behavior of market participants, Large Investors are frequently placing open orders in the market, leveraging their substantial financial strength to suppress and manipulate prices. Meanwhile, during the market downturn, many retail investors have already fallen into difficulties, with some investors even being forced to exit due to Get Liquidated, while the remaining retail investors mostly adopt a wait-and-see attitude, generally expecting that there is still room for prices to fall, and the market is likely to face a new round of big dump. Against this backdrop, when Bitcoin will be able to reverse and rise has become the core issue of most concern to market participants.

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🔥🔥🔥 Bitcoin's rise depends on two key factors: the direction of tariffs and the money supply. The tariff policy is like a sword of Damocles hanging above the market, and when it can be implemented, it will become the starting point for the phased upward repair of the market. During the Trump administration, the volatile tariff policy caused frequent changes in market expectations, and financial markets have always been extremely sensitive to uncertainty, which greatly increased the difficulty and risk of decision-making for market participants. In such a situation, the market urgently needs a stable and predictable policy environment, rather than the management of frequently changing market expectations, otherwise the market will be overwhelmed. On the money supply side, when the Fed will restart releasing water to bail out the market also depends to a large extent on the direction of tariff policy. When the uncertainty of the tariff policy has decreased and market confidence has been restored to a certain extent, the Fed may consider easing monetary policy and injecting liquidity into the market. To sum up, the reversal of the rise of the bitcoin market largely depends on the stability of the tariff policy and the shift of the Fed's monetary policy. Only when there is a positive change in these two key factors will it be possible for the bitcoin market to usher in a real reversal to the upside.
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🔥🔥🔥In the short term, the Bitcoin market is showing a volatile pattern this afternoon, with the price finding short-term support after multiple dips around 81200, followed by pressure to rise, and currently running above 82000. Ethereum also peaked at 1822 in the morning before starting to pull back, hitting a low of 1776 before rebounding to oscillate around 1800. From the current perspective, it is still quite difficult for bulls to form a strong breakthrough in the short term. Tonight, we will first look at the 4-hour small trend bottom divergence, combined with indicators under bullish expectations to see how strong the market rebound can be, while also paying attention to the situation in the US market tonight. There is currently no clear support seen below in the short term. The strategy remains unchanged, still focusing on shorting at high points!