Polymarket bets on Satoshi Nakamoto's move soaring to 15%: Does this mean Bitcoin will face significant Fluctuation?

Predicted Market Explosion: Satoshi Nakamoto Reignites the Topic

In the past two weeks, a new topic on the prediction market Polymarket has suddenly surged - "Will Satoshi Nakamoto transfer Bitcoin in 2025?"

The betting probability of this event surged from 2% to 15%, then pulled back to 4%. This caused the originally calm market to suddenly stir. Many analysts pointed out that this may be related to the recent increase in activity from some old addresses on the chain, as well as heightened uncertainty in the macro market.

Why do these types of bets attract market attention?

The decentralized nature of Bitcoin makes any significant on-chain activity a market focal point. Satoshi Nakamoto's Bitcoin has almost never been utilized, so any signs are seen as potential "alarms." The emergence of prediction markets has further commodified this discussion—people can express opinions with money, forming real-time public opinion.

On-chain data insights: dormant wallets remain untouched, but monitoring has been upgraded.

Currently, Satoshi Nakamoto's early miner wallets still have no transaction records. However, the blockchain analysis platform Glassnode pointed out that in the past month, multiple "2009 mined" Bitcoins have been activated. Although they are different from Satoshi's address, it is enough to keep the market alert.

If he takes action, the price may exhibit three scenarios.

• Short-term panic selling: If the news is confirmed, investors may flee in the short term.
• Institutions buying on dips: Long-term institutions may treat this as a "non-fundamental event" for replenishing their positions.
• Market rebound reconstruction: If confirmed to be a false report, the price typically rebounds within 24 hours.

These three models have appeared in similar past events (such as "Mt.Gox reimbursement" and "whale wallet transfer").

Observing market sentiment games from Polymarket

Behind Polymarket betting is the pricing mechanism of investors on "unknown risks". An increase from 2% to 15% means that more people are willing to spend money to bet on an "unlikely event", reflecting the rising anxiety and speculative mentality in the market.

How should beginners respond?

• Pay attention to trends, and do not blindly trust probabilities: A 15% probability represents a signal, not a result.
• Reasonable position layout: In the case of increased fluctuation expectations, risk can be appropriately diversified.
• Take the opportunity to learn on-chain analysis: tracking wallets and understanding market psychology is far more important than short-term betting.

Conclusion: Satoshi Nakamoto has never left.

Whether he will actually take action or not, Satoshi Nakamoto has long become a symbol of Bitcoin belief. The bets on Polymarket are just a way for the market to have a self-dialogue—in a world where technology, belief, and money are intertwined, the legend continues.