Can NVIDIA's stock price reach new heights again? A comprehensive analysis of target prices and policy trends.

AI and Data Centers: NVIDIA's Core Growth Engine

Artificial Intelligence (AI) and large-scale data centers are the two major driving forces behind NVIDIA's rapid revenue growth. In the most recent fiscal quarter, the company's revenue was $46.7 billion, showing impressive performance both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. The data center business generated revenue of $41.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 56%. The upgrade to the Blackwell architecture has brought performance improvements, which have also driven product pricing and demand.

The gross margin remains high (non-GAAP gross margin of approximately 72.7%), indicating that its products still have pricing power and brand advantages in the high-end market.

Policy Direction: Antitrust & Pressure on the Chinese Market

China's antitrust agency has filed preliminary charges against NVIDIA's acquisition of Mellanox, indicating that there may be issues with the enforcement of approval conditions.

The news triggered a short-term decline in stock prices, with investors concerned that China may impose restrictions on the export or sale of certain products.

In addition, although NVIDIA suspended the sale of H20 chips to Chinese customers at certain times, the recently released inventory and orders from other markets have had a positive impact on revenue.

Comparison of target price and market expectations

• The current stock price is about 177.75 dollars, close to the trading highs and fluctuation range of the past few months.
• Most analysts have an average target price of around $211.26 for the next 12 months, with some forecasts looking towards $250, while others have given more conservative valuations.
• The market consensus is "strong buy," emphasizing that the demand for AI infrastructure remains strong, which is a relatively certain trend in the medium to long term.

Summary

NVIDIA's stock price has a high probability of breaking through the 200–220 USD range in the next 6–12 months, especially against the backdrop of sustained demand for AI and data centers. However, if pressure from Chinese policies increases or export restrictions escalate, it may fall back to the 160–180 USD range. It is recommended that novice investors build their positions in batches, remain patient, and stay updated on policy dynamics.