Why Cardano (ADA) Price Surge by 70%? Analysis of Three Key Price Catalysts and Market Signals

On March 3, 2025, a message from the White House shook the crypto world: Trump announced that the United States would establish a crypto strategic reserve, with Cardano (ADA) selected alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP as core assets. The market reacted instantly, ADA price Surged 75% within 24 hours, skyrocketing from $0.6461 to $1.13, with trading volume increasing by 1450%.

Despite subsequently falling back to around $0.86 due to market fluctuations, this event revealed Cardano The immense explosive power is being harnessed. In-depth analysis indicates that the momentum for the ADA price to achieve a 70% rise is accumulating once again.

Policy and Regulation: The Booster of National Strategy

When crypto assets are incorporated into the national reserve framework, their market position has undergone a qualitative change. The Trump administration’s inclusion of ADA in the strategic crypto reserve not only represents official endorsement but also indicates that the U.S. government may become a major buyer in the Cardano spot market.

This decision directly triggered a frenzy of buying by whales. On-chain data shows that within 24 hours of the announcement, large holders accumulated nearly 200 million ADA, worth about 150 million dollars. The influx of significant funds provided strong support for the price.

The deeper impact lies in the regulatory breakthrough. Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson has established a policy office in Washington, D.C., explicitly advocating for the repeal of the SEC’s SAB 121 rule and supporting the Responsible Financial Innovation Act. If these two policies are implemented, they will remove key barriers for institutional entry.

Market rumors suggest that Hoskinson may be hired by the Trump administration as a crypto policy advisor. If this news is true, Cardano will hold a unique advantage within the U.S. regulatory framework.

Technology and Ecology: Performance Breakthroughs and Practical Applications

The evolution of technology has always been the underlying logic of Cardano’s value growth. In May 2025, Cardano nodes will upgrade to v.10.4.1, introducing the UTXO-HD feature to optimize transaction processing efficiency, while the Plutus team enhances smart contract security through formal methods.

The most critical breakthrough lies in scalability. Through Leios technology simulation, the Cardano network’s transaction processing capacity has reached 1000 transactions per second (TPS). This figure provides the foundational capability to support large-scale DeFi and NFT applications, directly targeting the core battlefield of Ethereum.

The ecological expansion is equally rapid:

• Flow DeFi releases a white paper to build a new type of decentralized finance protocol.
• Strategic cooperation with Strike Finance to expand the lending market.
• Trust Wallet Support in-app DRep delegation, reducing the threshold for governance participation.

It is especially noteworthy that the Japanese market has exploded. The trading volume of the ADA/JPY trading pair has surged, and the awakening of the Asian market brings a new growth point for Cardano.

Market signals and institutional trends: clear evidence of capital allocation

The technical chart has issued a clear buy signal. ADA has broken out of a bullish flag pattern on the weekly chart, which has been forming since December 2024, and this breakout lays the foundation for a subsequent 90% rise. On the daily level, it has strongly reclaimed the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), forming a classic bullish technical structure.

Institutional entry is accelerating. Grayscale has included ADA in its smart contract fund portfolio, alongside Ethereum, Solana, and others. More importantly, Grayscale has submitted a spot Cardano ETF application to the SEC - if approved, it will become the first independent ADA ETF product, opening the floodgates for institutional capital.

The derivatives market is also rippling with activity. During the big pump at the beginning of March, ADA futures open interest surged by 63%, reaching $371 million, a new high in 9 months. Traders are positioning for potential volatility expansion, with call option premiums in the options market continuing to rise.

Analysts’ target prices show an optimistic consensus:

• After stabilizing at 1.05 USD in the short term, the target is 1.90 USD (potential rise of 82% compared to the current price)
• Bitpanda Academy gives a bullish forecast of 5.66 USD by the end of 2025.
• In the long-term cycle, Javon Marks even proposed a technical target of 7.82 dollars.

Investment Risk Warning: Rational Thinking Amidst the Frenzy

Despite the bright prospects, investors still need to be wary of threefold risks:

• Regulatory variables: The SEC may still classify ADA as a security, leading to legal uncertainty.
• Ecosystem shortcoming: The total locked value (TVL) on the Cardano chain is only $440 million, accounting for less than 0.3% of the total DeFi market.
• Development Pace: The academically prioritized development model has led to an upgrade speed lagging behind. Solana and competitors

Market sentiment indicators also suggest short-term overheating. During the big pump in March, the ADA relative strength index (RSI) once broke through the 80 overbought line, triggering profit-taking. The fear and greed index is currently at a neutral 50 points, but 78% of technical indicators still show bearish signals.

The crypto market has never strayed from its cyclical volatility. When ADA hovers around $0.68 in June 2025, whales have quietly accumulated 170 million tokens. The ETF application submitted by Grayscale is awaiting a decision from the SEC, while the lights at the Washington policy office stay on all night.

These signals converge in the same direction: a 70% rise is merely a technical rebound target, and the real value reconstruction may only truly begin after breaking through 1.90 USD.