Both parties in the United States support encryption, is the bull run returning?

[TL;DR]

✨ The cryptocurrency industry’s donations for the 2024 U.S. presidential election have reached $190 million, a significant increase from $15 million in 2020, showing that cryptocurrencies have become an important factor in political decision-making.

✨ The Republican Party is more proactive and optimistic than the Democratic Party, hoping to win the support of cryptocurrency enthusiasts by relaxing regulations; the Democratic Party, on the other hand, places more emphasis on stable market rules and consumer protection.

✨ The future policy-making will face the major issue of how to balance the innovation vitality of the encryption industry with effective regulation to achieve the long-term prosperity of the industry.

引言

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, a high-profile issue is emerging: how will the divergence and stance of the two parties on crypto policy affect the fate of Bitcoin and the entire crypto space at a critical moment in determining the future direction of the world’s largest economy? Will the bipartisan bias toward crypto-friendly policies for political voting open a new chapter in the mainstream adoption of cryptocurrency? This is not only a contest between technology and regulation, but also a profound rehearsal of the future global technology and financial order.

Cryptocurrencies are playing a role in the global financial order

As the global financial markets continue to evolve, cryptocurrencies, as an emerging financial instrument and asset class, are increasingly influential and important. This year, especially against the backdrop of the US presidential election, cryptocurrencies have become an important player in shaping political decisions. As a result, the divergence and positions of the two major US political parties on cryptocurrency policies have become a focus of market attention.

According to FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett, citing Breadcrumbs.app data in September this year, the encryption industry has contributed $190 million to the 2024 U.S. election in contrast to just $15 million in cryptocurrency donations during the 2020 election.

Figure 1 Source: @EleanorTerrett

It appears that the encryption industry can not only provide financial support to political parties, but the large young population behind it is also a key force in influencing elections. This undoubtedly demonstrates the increasingly positive social influence of the encryption field. In the past two years, the policy tendencies of the two parties in the United States have shifted from skepticism to acceptance, reflecting their different views and interests in emerging technologies. Below, we will briefly interpret the slightly different encryption policies of the two parties in the United States for the readers to enjoy.

Democratic Party: Embrace with Caution, Emphasize Compliance

The Democratic Party’s attitude towards cryptocurrency is relatively complex, with both supporters and concerns. They are concerned about the potential impact of cryptocurrency on financial stability, consumer protection, and anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing. For example, Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown often call for enhanced regulation of cryptocurrency to prevent its use in illegal activities.

As a Democratic presidential candidate, Kamala Harris has a cautious attitude towards cryptocurrencies. She tends towards consumer protection and regulatory oversight, expressing concerns about the potential use of cryptocurrencies for illegal activities. However, she also acknowledges the potential of blockchain technology in promoting financial inclusion and innovation. In a recent statement, Harris emphasized the importance of embracing new financial technologies without abandoning consumer protection and financial stability principles.

Figure 2 Source: crowdfundinsider

They are committed to establishing a regulatory framework to regulate the operation of the encryption market, prevent financial crimes and fraudulent activities. During the Biden administration, active efforts have been made to regulate and enforce cryptocurrencies, issuing utive orders and proposing the establishment of the first comprehensive framework for the “responsible development of digital currency.” In addition, the Biden administration is actively cooperating with international financial organizations to launch a global joint regulatory action on cryptocurrencies.

In terms of specific actions, the Department of Finance and the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under the Democratic government, led by Gary Gensler, have imposed stricter scrutiny on the cryptocurrency industry, requiring trading platforms to register and comply with existing securities regulations. These measures reflect the Democratic Party’s cautious and regulatory stance on cryptocurrency policies.

However, with the rapid development and increasing influence of the cryptocurrency industry, the Democratic Party has begun to reexamine this field and seek interaction and cooperation with the crypto community. For example, eight Democratic lawmakers held a private roundtable meeting with cryptocurrency industry utives specifically to discuss Bitcoin-related issues. The meeting covered topics such as using BTC for financial inclusion, mining and energy sustainability, and competition with China. It was productive and the members actively participated and were eager to learn.

With Biden’s withdrawal, the new candidate Harris has begun to soften her previous encryption policy tendencies based on her own political stance and interests. Just at the end of September, Harris repeatedly stated that under her leadership, the United States will “recommit” to maintaining global leadership in defining the next century, and maintaining dominance in areas such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing, blockchain, and other emerging technologies. However, her rhetoric is not as clear and firm in supporting actions as Trump, and the strength to attract the encryption community is still insufficient.

Figure 3 Source: Harris

In any case, regardless of how policies change, the core principle of the Democratic Party in encryption policy - ensuring market stability and consumer rights - is expected to remain unchanged. At the same time, the Democratic Party will continue to seek interaction and cooperation with the encryption community to promote the healthy development of the cryptocurrency industry.

Republican Party: Actively Open and Strongly Strive

The Republican Party has gradually shifted from skepticism and resistance to embracing and supporting encryption in the past year, especially with Republican candidate Trump expressing his support and optimism for encryption multiple times during his campaign. His evolving position reflects the overall change in the Republican Party’s attitude towards encryption.

During his campaign, Trump proposed a series of policy initiatives supporting encryption, including establishing a government cryptocurrency reserve, relaxing central unified regulation, and shaping the global competitiveness of American cryptocurrency. He also furthered his ties with the cryptocurrency community by issuing his own series of NFTs (non-fungible tokens) and announced that he would accept cryptocurrency donations. We have also mentioned these in our blog articles.

Figure 4 Source: ARKHAM

In addition, Trump also criticized the “incredible hostile” regulatory approach under current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler’s leadership, promising that if industry participants receive his support, their situation will improve. Correspondingly, a June survey of Republican voters this year showed that Republicans are enthusiastic about financial freedom and support encryption.

Figure 5 Source: paradigm.xyz

In short, the Republican Party in the United States has a more proactive and clear attitude towards cryptocurrency policies than the Democratic Party, aiming to gain more support from the cryptocurrency community, especially with Trump’s active participation and evolving stance, which has pushed this issue to the forefront of public opinion. Many observers believe that if the Republican Party can win the election, it will vigorously promote the implementation of its cryptocurrency policy proposals. However, this also requires the Republican Party to fulfill its promises after the election and take practical and effective measures to promote the healthy development of the cryptocurrency industry.

Summary

It is not difficult to see from the above that the Republican Party has an open and supportive attitude towards encryption, advocating for relaxed regulation to gain more support from crypto voters. The existing Democratic Party in power is also beginning to show a friendly tendency towards crypto policies, with its emphasis on market stability and regulatory positions making it more cautious and conservative.

In the future, with the continuous maturity of cryptocurrency technology and the continuous expansion of market applications, the differences and confrontations between the two parties in the United States on cryptocurrency policy may further escalate. However, regardless of policy changes, the influence and importance of cryptocurrencies as an emerging financial instrument and asset class will continue to grow.

With the arrival of the traditional bullish “October Effect” and the approaching presidential election, the encryption market may usher in a period of prosperity. The focus of future policy-making will be on how to balance innovation and regulation, which may be an important practical issue to ensure the long-term healthy development of the cryptocurrency industry.