Daily News | GBTC Remains the Top Trading Volume; Google Allows Crypto Advertising; Institutions Predict that the Price of BTC After Halving in April Will Reach $170K

Crypto Daily Digest: On the 12th ETF trading day, GBTC still ranks first, Google allows for the placement of crypto advertisements

On January 30th, according to data compiled by Bloomberg analyst James Seyfart, the total trading volume of US Bitcoin spot ETFs on the 12th trading day was $1.5643 billion. Among them, GBTC’s trading volume was $570 million, ranking first, followed closely by BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC. The cumulative trading volume of Bitcoin spot ETFs after 12 days of launch reached $25.9384 billion.

On January 29th, according to Lookonchain monitoring, Grayscale deposited 6,534 Bitcoin (BTC) worth approximately $274.95 million into Coinbase Prime 25 minutes ago. Since the ETF was approved, Grayscale has deposited a total of 119,663 Bitcoins into Coinbase Prime, with a total value of approximately $4.91 billion.

On January 30th, according to the daily position update released by Grayscale, GBTC’s Bitcoin holdings fell below 500,000, with a specific number of 496,573.8166 Bitcoins held, an asset management scale (non GAAP) of $21,431,132,778.35, and 555,700,100 circulating shares, with a position of approximately 0.0008936 BTC per share.

According to Bitcoin Magazine, Google has updated its advertising policy to allow crypto trust products to be advertised in the United States. Advertisements for Bitcoin spot ETFs such as BlackRock, VanEck, and Franklin Templeton have already appeared on Google search pages.

On January 29th, Anthony Scaramucci, founder of Skybridge Capital, made a bullish prediction about the potential trend of Bitcoin. Based on historical data, he believes that Bitcoin’s “conservative” increase in the coming months will exceed 300%, and may peak at $170,000 after halving in April.

Anthony Scaramucci also predicts that in the long run, the price of Bitcoin may reach $400,000 and its market value may increase tenfold, approaching half of gold’s market value. Based on its experience and analysis, the peak of Bitcoin prices will occur approximately 18 months after the halving event. He predicts that the “cyclical peak” of Bitcoin may be equivalent to four times the price when halved.

Scaramucci conservatively estimates that the price of Bitcoin will be $35,000 when halved, and outlines potential scenarios: if the Bitcoin price reaches $50,000 in April, it may reach $200,000 thereafter; If it reaches $60,000 in April, it may soar to $240,000.

On January 29th, according to The Block, TD Cowen Investment Bank believes that the US SEC is not expected to approve Ethereum spot ETFs in 2024. Companies including BlackRock and Fidelity have applied for Ethereum ETF spot trading. Last week, the US SEC once again postponed its decision on Grayscale Investments Ethereum ETF spot, and other applications were also delayed earlier this month. TD Cowen Investment Bank predicts that the US SEC will not approve spot Ethereum ETFs until the end of 2025 or early 2026.

In terms of data fluctuations, according to the latest data from Nansen 2, Smart Money’s 24-hour Ethereum network fund inflow tracking list is as follows: LDO: about $3.33 million, currently quoted at $3.1, a 24-hour decline of 2.02%; BIGTIME: Approximately $990,000, currently quoted at $0.3605, with a 24-hour decrease of 5.55%; UNI: Approximately $950,000, currently quoted at $5.981, with a 24-hour decrease of 0.99%.

Secondly, the TVL of Eigenpie, a subDAO organization under the multi-chain revenue protocol Magpie, has exceeded $70 million. Previously, Eigenpie stated that it has opened an LST pre deposit window, supporting users to stake stETH, rETH, mETH, and sfrxETH again. The pre deposit window will continue until 3:00 on February 10th, and other LST deposits supported by EigenLayer will soon be activated through Eigenpie.

Macro: Gold hit a new high in nearly a week, focus on this Thursday’s interest rate resolution

On Monday, the US dollar index hit a new high since the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting last month, but then took a sharp turn and was close to giving up all of the day’s gains, ultimately closing up 0.014% at 103.47; As the US Treasury Department unexpectedly lowered the expectation of Q1 borrowing scale, the yield of US bonds fell across the board, led by the yield of long-term treasury bond bonds, and the yield of 10-year US bonds finally closed at 4.076%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, closed at 4.322%.

Due to the escalating tensions in the Middle East, demand for safe haven assets has been boosted. Spot gold opened high and fluctuated upwards, reaching a maximum of 2037.41, ultimately closing 0.71% higher at $2032.88 per ounce, reaching a new high in nearly a week. Spot silver ultimately closed up 1.78% at $23.2 per ounce.

International crude oil opened high and fell low, falling to nearly two month highs, ending a three-day streak of gains. Concerns about Asian demand led traders to reassess the risk premium of tensions in the Middle East. WTI crude oil fell 1.5% to $76.88 per barrel; Brent crude oil fell 1.47% to $82.41 per barrel. The decline in US bond yields boosted the strength of the three major US stock indexes in the late trading session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.59%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.76%, and the Nasdaq up 1.1%.

This week, it is worth noting that at 2 am Beijing time on Thursday, investors will focus on the latest interest rate decision by the Federal Reserve. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will hold a press conference at 2:30 am.

Although it is expected that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates unchanged, Powell may provide signals on when to cut rates and the extent of future cuts. Investors currently expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates six times by 25 basis points in 2024, but the Fed has only provided guidance on three rate cuts before. There is a significant disconnect between the two, and as the expectation gap between investors and the Federal Reserve narrows, it will have an impact on the market.

JoséTorres, senior economist at Yingtou Securities, said that the current level of economic growth, coupled with a tight labor market and inflation above target, may make the transition process of monetary policy longer and more risky, and market participants have now dispelled expectations of the Federal Reserve’s first interest rate cut in March or May.