Bitcoin ETF Trading vs BTC Miners and Traders

2024-01-23, 07:02

After the SEC’s spot Bitcoin ETF approval, the price of bitcoin entered a correction phase.

British HODL believes that bitcoin ETFs have not been priced in.

Previously, the market anticipated the price of bitcoin to reach $48,000 after the SEC’s approval of bitcoin ETFs.

Keywords: BTC ETF trading, BTC miners, bitcoin mining, spot bitcoin ETFs, bitcoin halving, mining rewards, BTC mining, crypto miners, Bitcoin price, BTC traders

Introduction

After the SEC approved 11 spot bitcoin ETFs, the market participants responded in different ways. The bitcoin price started to drop the day the SEC approved the crypto ETFs.

Traders and bitcoin miners have been active after the SEC approved the spot crypto ETFs. This analysis focuses on changes in bitcoin price after the crypto ETFs approval in the United States.

Bitcoin Traded in a Range on the ETF Day

On 10 January, the ETF day, the market anticipated the bitcoin price to reach $48,000. Nonetheless, BTC remained in its established range as it failed to breakout or breakdown. As you can see in the next graph, the bitcoin price fluctuated between $44,000 and $46000 on that day.

Bitcoin Price on ETF Day - CoinMarketCap

The interesting thing is that the bitcoin price rose on the 9th and 11th, not on the 10th of January. On the 9th its high was slightly above $47,000 while on the 11th it peaked above $47,300.

However, there was much activity on the bitcoin market as well. Maartnnun’s X post indicates that there were two large sell orders worth $46,100 and $48,000 on the 10th of January. These sell orders show that traders were active on that day.

Source: x.com

Some BTC traders might have placed large bitcoin sell orders, probably to raise funds to purchase spot bitcoin ETFs. Pertaining this, Regg, an investment analyst commented, “This is expected. Large holders selling some of their spot in order to buy the ETF. May sound crazy to some, but a lot of people are doing this.”

Apart from the crypto traders, BTC miners were also active on the market as the bitcoin Flow indicates. Gaah reports that there was a net inflow of 10 K BTC in the miners’ wallets before the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs.

However, after the SEC ETF approval there was a net outflow of 9.5K BTC. Similarly, the crypto miners might have sold their holdings so that they participated in BTC ETF trading.

Source: x.com

Also, according to Glassnode, an on-chain analytics firm, there was much activity among crypto users on exchanges. It reported on 10 January that the proportion of transaction volume reached a new high of 76%.

Posting on X it stated, “Exchange activity remains significantly elevated with 76.4% of Bitcoin on-chain volume flowing in/out of Exchanges, just shy of the ATH of 77.4%.” Glassnode included the following diagram to illustrate the changes that took place in bitcoin trading volume on exchanges.

Source: x.com

As you note on The Graph, there was an increase in exchange volume dominance.

Bitcoin Price Action after ETF Approval

When BTC ETF trading started on 11 January the bitcoin price surged to $49,000, the first time since December 2021. Basically, it started the day at $46,000, rose to over $47,000 before it spiked to $49,042. However, by the end of the day it had fallen below $46,000.

Notably, two days after the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs the price of bitcoin dropped by about 7% which seemed to confirm the bears’ theory of a sell-the-news-style price action.

It is important to note that the bitcoin price increased by over 75% during a 90-day period before the SEC’s bitcoin ETF approval. This may explain the current price correction after the ETF day. The next diagram shows bitcoin price movement for the past 90 days.

Bitcoin Price movement – CoinGecko

Looking at the above graph you can tell that the bitcoin price had been increasing since October 2023 until 11 January, a day after the ETF approval. From that day to date it entered a correction phase. At the time of press, bitcoin is trading at $41,303.

The current sell pressure may be due to the approaching bitcoin halving event, expected to occur in April this year. Specifically, the crypto miners could be willing to sell part of their holdings before that event since a 50% cut in block subsidy may greatly affect margins.

Is Bitcoin ETF Priced In?

There is no doubt that the price of bitcoin has not moved much since the ETF day. That has led some analysts to believe that the BTC ETF has been priced in. However, British HODL, a popular commentator, has an explanation for the current scenario as well as the short-term and long-term BTC price movements.

According to British HODl, the bitcoin price remained range-bound a few days after the ETF approvals as the capital inflows associated with the BTC ETFs had not yet moved into the market.

He/she advised his/her followers that they should wait before concluding that bitcoin ETFs are priced in. British HODL posted, “Just because the price has not moved yet does not mean that “it was priced in”. We can judge priced in, at the halving - if the price stays the same between now and then, I’ll say we were priced in.”

He/she also stressed that the buying pressure has not yet started. That is why he added, “If Bloomberg is right with $4bn coming in on the FIRST day of trading tomorrow. Then based on the Bank of America Bull Market Multiple. We could see a price of $50k-$57k by close of trading on Friday. The buying pressure has not even STARTED yet.”

The BTC halving, British HODL referred to, is likely to occur in April this year. During that event the mining rewards will be slashed by half from 6.25 to 3125 BTC. This may mean that bitcoin mining may become less attractive than before unless its price rises significantly. However, the viability of BTC mining will depend on the mining difficulty.

Conclusion

Since the ETF day there has been much bitcoin activity in the market. For example, the sell-off pressure increased which might have contributed to the decrease in its price. The fact that the bitcoin price has remained range-bound does not mean that the ETFs have been priced in. If the BTC price remains depressed until the bitcoin halving event, we may then conclude that the ETFs have been priced in.

Author: Mashell C., Gate.io Researcher

*This article represents only the views of the researcher and does not constitute any investment suggestions.

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