Daily News | Institutions Predict 6 Major Trends in Crypto in 2024; Will BTC Rise to $160,000? SOL Surpassed XRP to Become the 5th Largest Crypto by Market Cap

Bitcoin Cash crypto
On Wednesday, according to The Block, the US Court of Appeals finalized an authorization to formally confiscate 69370 Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies related to the Silk Road dark web market. The ruling was first made in August, but according to a document from the United States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit, it will now take effect. The documents submitted on Wednesday listed Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road, as the defendant, and two claimants and the US government as plaintiffs.

Pantera Capital partner Paul Veradettakit has released six major forecasts for the crypto industry in 2024, including:

1.The revival of Bitcoin and DeFi Summer 2.0;
2.Token-based social experience for new consumer use cases;
3.Increase in TradFi DeFi bridges such as stablecoins and mirror assets;
4.The integration of modular blockchain and zero-knowledge proof;
5.More computationally intensive applications, such as AI and DePIN, are launched on the chain;
6.The integration of the public chain eco and the “central radiation” model of the application chain.

Data shows that Solana has replaced XRP as the fifth largest cryptocurrency by market value, with a market value of $35.1 billion, reaching a new 20-month high. This week, driven by rising asset prices and continuous inflows of DeFi protocols, Solana’s Total Value Locked (TVL) exceeded $1 billion for the first time since the FTX crash in November last year.

The trading volume of DEX on Solana has increased. On December 15th, Orca’s transaction volume reached $746 million, surpassing $100 million only before November. The majority of the increase in activities can be attributed to MEME tokens such as Bonk, which currently have a market value of over $1.2 billion. The current trading price of SOL is $83.58, with a 24-hour increase of 12.14%.

Previously, it was reported that Solana Ecological DEX’s daily trading volume exceeded $1.2 billion, marking the second time in history that it surpassed Ethereum; Later, it was reported that the trading volume of SOL on Upbit has been higher than the trading volume of ETH for 55 consecutive days.

Over the past few weeks, 95% of the trading activities on the EVM chain have been generated through inions.

Etherscan tweeted that since mid-November, inions have been frequently created on the EVM chain, leading to a significant surge in daily trading volume, soaring gas fees, and longer transaction processing times. To some extent, the phenomenon of inions can be seen as a good stress test for blockchain and infrastructure providers to uate their limitations.

As the market gradually improves, institutions are also running out to predict the market. Matrixport has released the latest report stating that the US inflation rate is expected to decline to 2% by 2024. The macro economy is expected to support the price of Bitcoin to reach a higher level in 2024. Bitcoin miners often limit the supply of new Bitcoin before and after the halving cycle, and Bitcoin will reach a historic high six months after the halving (expected to be halved in April next year).

The financing interest rate of Bitcoin remains high, indicating that traders expect prices to rise, and even though the volatility of SP500 has dropped to multi-year lows, implied volatility remains high. Therefore, it is expected that financing rates will decrease during the Christmas holiday, but volatility may still rise as traders hedge against potential Bitcoin spot ETF approvals.

According to the report analysis, since December 8th, Bitcoin has been in a sideways consolidation range. However, due to the expected approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in early January 2024, it is expected that the lower support level in this range ($40,000) will remain unchanged. At the same time, the report remains cautious about whether Bitcoin can break through higher levels during Christmas.

From a historical perspective, Bitcoin has risen by 3% from December 24th to December 31st, but the return rate has been affected by Bitcoin’s strong returns in its early years, while the price of Bitcoin has been lower for four years in the past five years. This means that we may have already seen the high point of this year, and prices may continue to consolidate until the end of the year.

The market value of Bitcoin has increased from $320 billion to $827 billion, and the wealth of Bitcoin holders has increased by approximately $500 billion. On October 31, 2017, when CME Group announced the launch of fourth-quarter Bitcoin futures, CBOE Bitcoin futures were listed on December 10, and CME was listed on December 17. From its announcement to launch, Bitcoin has risen by +212%. When Bitcoin spot ETFs are approved, similar situations may also occur. The most likely approval dates are January 8th, 9th and 10th.

Considering the frequent meetings between the SEC, especially BlackRock, the expectation of Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved in January has increased. Coincidentally, since December 8th, Tether‘s stablecoin minting speed has slowed down - indicating that institutional funds flowing from fiat currency to cryptocurrency may be waiting for new demand in early January.

The report also states that TVL, which was $38 billion at the beginning of 2023, has now increased to $51 billion, the highest level before the FTX crash. With pledges becoming a key value proposition for Ethereum, Lido’s TVL has significantly increased. Lido’s TVL has increased from $6 billion to $20 billion. However, overall, the DeFi performance in 2023 was disappointing. This year’s annual transaction must be Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), as its discount has been reduced from -47% to only -8%. Although Bitcoin prices have increased by +154%, GBTC has increased by +326%.

On December 21st, CryptoQuant analysts also stated in a report that the expected demand for Bitcoin from multiple US spot ETFs, upcoming halving, and growth in the broader stock market under the background of interest rate cuts may push Bitcoin to a high of $160,000. Meanwhile, analysts say a bull market may begin in 2024.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

The 4-hour chart touched the support level at $40,280 and stabilized, showing an upward trend. In the short term, a W-shaped pattern is forming, attempting to break through resistance. Pay attention to the convergence of the mid-term structure at higher levels. Utilize the overall upward channel for both long and short positions. Resistance levels to watch: $45,345 and $47,990; Support levels to maintain: $40,280 and $38,399.

ETH

This week, Ethereum continues to oscillate above $2,135. Attempts to break the trend line have not succeeded, leading to continued testing below. In the short term, it is advisable to maintain stability above $2,135. Support levels below are at $2,037 and $1,974. Keep an eye on breaking the resistance at $2,381; a successful break could lead to $2,489. In the mid-term, watch the descending trend indicated by the orange line.

TRB

The market manipulation strategy is evident, with quick moves within five minutes. TRB is not recommended for trading in the futures market due to frequent declines ranging from 33% to 35%. After a short-term move, closing at $185, it is suggested to maintain positions and anticipate a retracement above the trend line. Support is at $108.77, and long-term trends remain bullish with targets at $231.25 and $245.

Macro: The US stock market has ended its nine consecutive gains, and the Fed’s Huck stated that the Fed plans to cut interest rates, but not so quickly

On Wednesday, the US dollar index remained strong above the 102 level, rising to an intraday high of 102.54 and ultimately closing 0.3% higher at 102.44. The yield on US Treasury bonds has declined, with the 10-year yield falling below the 3.9% mark and ultimately closing at 3.853%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, closed at 4.340%.

Spot gold failed to stabilize above the $2,040 level and briefly fell below the $2,030 level during the US market, ultimately closing down 0.44% at $2,031.24 per ounce; Spot silver showed a roller coaster trend, with a significant increase during the US market, followed by a retracement of most of the gains, ultimately closing up 0.4% at $24.15 per ounce.

Due to an unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories last week, a more-than-expected increase in fuel inventories, and record-breaking oil production, international crude oil has experienced a pullback. WTI crude oil took back all of its gains during the US session and turned down, ultimately closing down 0.53% at $73.74 per barrel; Brent crude oil briefly hit the $80 mark in the trading session, but failed to stabilize and ultimately closed down 0.24% at $79.11 per barrel.

The three major US stock indexes continued to decline in late trading, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing down 1.27% and the Nasdaq closing down 1.5%. All nine consecutive days of gains were ended, and the S&P 500 index closed down 1.47%, marking the largest daily decline in nearly three months.

Officials from the Fed have made statements again. On Wednesday, Philadelphia Fed Chairman Huck stated that the Fed should start cutting interest rates, but not immediately. Some of his peers have recently launched an “interest rate cut to extinguish the fire” campaign, vigorously countering the market’s widely expected interest rate cut in early 2024. In contrast, Huck’s stance is more moderate.

“It’s important for us to start lowering interest rates. We don’t need to act too quickly, nor will we take immediate action,” Huck said in a local radio interview on Wednesday.

He said, “We will keep interest rates at the current level before starting to lower them.”

Huck’s comments are more supportive of the Fed’s next policy adjustment being a rate cut, rather than the kind of rebuttal from his colleagues in recent days. He said that although government data is looking backward, the economy seems to be slowing down faster than the data shows.