Daily News | With the ETF Application Window Coming to An End, the Inflow of Bitcoin ETP Funds Has Reached A Historic High, BTC May Rise to $45,000 by the End of 2023

Crypto Daily Digest: The inflow of Bitcoin ETP funds reached a historic high, Bitcoin may rise to $45K by the end of 2023

Recently, Bloomberg analyst James Seyfart stated on the X platform that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make a decision on the Bitcoin spot ETFs submitted by Hashdex and Franklin on November 17 and Global X on November 21. James Seyfart believes that the SEC is likely to delay the decision.

But he also still believes that there is a 90% chance that the 19b-4 document for reviewing Bitcoin spot ETF applications will be approved before January 10, 2024.

In addition, it is understood that Global X has submitted a revised Bitcoin spot ETF prospectus.

As previously reported, on August 5th, according to official documents, index fund giant Global X submitted an application to list spot Bitcoin ETF products on Friday and also designated Coinbase as its monitoring sharing protocol partner to obtain regulatory approval.

On November 15th, according to a K33 Research report, the demand for Bitcoin through trading platform trading products (ETPs) by institutions has significantly increased over the past month, increasing by 27095 BTC, reaching a record level and surpassing the traffic in June and July after BlackRock submitted Bitcoin spot ETFs.

Vetle Lunde, Senior Analyst at K33 Research, and Anders Helseth, Vice President, stated that in addition to the inflow of Bitcoin ETP, the continued high exposure of CME with the approaching deadline for the latest Bitcoin spot ETF from the US Securities and Exchange Commission indicates strong demand from institutions compared to Bitcoin.

Analysts say the narrow window for approving all current Bitcoin spot ETF applications will end on Friday, November 17th. This deadline specifically involves applications from Hashdex and Franklin. However, if the SEC wishes to approve all applications simultaneously, this window is an opportunity to ute the decision.

Once the window period has passed, although Global X ETF still has a deadline (November 21), all current applications will no longer be approved simultaneously. In this situation, the momentum of the crypto market may slow down as it may take several weeks to wait for significant news related to ETFs.

Matrixport tweeted on the X platform stating that while the market remains resilient, bulls still dominate, and Bitcoin has resisted the selling trend. Inflation data shows that the US CPI index has dropped to 3.2%, indicating that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates. The US government has not suspended operations, ensuring government funding support, and hopes of approving Bitcoin ETFs still exist. The market remains bullish, and Matrixport’s long-term expectation of reaching a year-end target of $45,000 remains unchanged.

On November 16th, Arthur Hayes posted on social media stating that since early November, nearly $200 billion in liquidity has been injected into the market as the balance of reverse repurchase (RRP) held by the New York Fed has decreased while the balance of the US Treasury General Account (TGA) has remained unchanged. Risk assets such as Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies will continue to soar.

Rostin Behnam, Chairman of the United States Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), recently stated at a meeting at Georgetown University that “nothing has changed” nearly a year after the collapse of the crypto exchange FTX. FTX similar events may occur again. He also stated that the crypto market has undergone significant changes since the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak began. Rostin Behnam believes that Congress needs to develop a roadmap and grant CFTC regulatory authority over the crypto market.

In December 2022, Behnam urged the Senate Banking Committee to quickly take regulatory measures to prevent the greater risks that cryptocurrencies may pose. He stated at the time that the CFTC lacked the power to comprehensively regulate the digital commodity market. To prevent this situation from happening again, the CFTC must obtain appropriate authorization from Congress.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

The daily chart retraced to the support level of $34,870, and rebounded to touch the key level of $38,000 last night, indicating high volatility at current levels. For short-term bullish positions, it is advisable to wait for a breakthrough above $40,495; if unsuccessful, a second retracement might target the support at $36,000.

ETH

The daily chart retraced to $1,951, followed by a rebound testing resistance at $2,065. Short-term strategy suggests maintaining stability around $2,037, with a potential washout before another uptrend. Conservative long positions are advised to wait for a breakthrough of $2,135, targeting the top at $2,318.

FTT

FTT’s overall trend from $1.3965 to $1.56 has surged to a high of $5. Short-term resistance at $3.67, with a target of $4.92 for bullish positions. Caution is advised for a potential false breakout and subsequent downturn after a failure to break through.

Macro: The probability of not raising interest rates in December is 100%, rate cuts will not occur in the short term

On Wednesday, the US dollar index rebounded and held the 104 level, eventually closing up 0.317% at 104.4. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose during the trading session. The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.543%; The two-year US Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to the Federal Reserve’s policy interest rates, closed at 4.916%. The three major US stock indexes ended up in a volatile session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.47%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.16%, and the Nasdaq up 0.07%.

Spot gold briefly broke the 1970 level, reaching a new week high, then plummeted to below the 1960 level, taking back all gains during the day and ultimately closing down 0.04% at 1961.67 US dollars per ounce; Spot silver further rose above the 23 level and eventually closed up 1.64% at $23.44 per ounce.

Due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories, international oil prices have fallen. WTI crude oil missed two consecutive integer levels of 78 and 77, ultimately closing 2.09% lower at $76.53 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed 1.75% lower at $80.95 per barrel.

According to CME’s “Federal Reserve Observation,” the probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in the 5.25% -5.50% range in December is 100%, and the probability of raising interest rates by 25 basis points to the 5.50% -5.75% range is 0%. The probability of maintaining interest rates unchanged by January next year is 100%, and the probability of a cumulative interest rate increase of 25 basis points is 0%.

On Wednesday, San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley warned that if the Fed announces victory in fighting inflation too early and then has to raise interest rates again, its credibility will be threatened.

Daley stated that the Federal Reserve should “carefully consider, patiently wait, and not make hasty judgments or statements.” She said, “We must be bold enough to say ‘we don’t know’ and bold enough to say ‘we need to take time to do it well.’”

Daley will become a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) next year. When asked about the plan to cut interest rates next year, she said that the focus of the debate will no longer be on whether to ease, but on the issue of “normalizing” interest rates after a “very strict” period.

“At some point, we don’t want to be too strict or very strict. We want to adjust policies to a more normal track because we believe the economy is moving towards normalization,” she said.

When weighing monetary policy, Daley stated that she would use inflation expectations and actual economic performance in one year as the measurement criteria. She added that interest rate cuts “will not occur in the short term.”