Daily News | Bitcoin Dominance Has Increased to 52.1%, BTC May Reach $45K Next Year, PMI Stronger than Market Expectations, US Dollar Rebound

Crypto Daily Digest: Matrixport is firmly optimistic about the target price of $45,000 for Bitcoin next year; Over 80% Bitcoin addresses are in paper profit

BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Spot ETF (code: IBTC) reappeared on the DTCC website after being briefly deleted, but changed from the earliest Y to N in the Create/Redeem section.

It is reported that Y represents the ability to actively create and redeem shares, which usually helps to maintain the market price of ETFs consistent with their net asset value. N represents that ETFs do not allow active creation or redemption of shares. This may result in a greater premium or discount on the transaction price compared to its net asset value. According to previous news, IBTC was removed from the DTCC website earlier today, and the website was temporarily unable to be opened afterward.

According to the latest news, DTCC stated that in August 2023, the BlackRock Bitcoin Trust ETF was added to the qualification documents. Appearing on the list does not indicate any unresolved regulatory or other approval results.

Whether the IBTC display is deleted or not, it cannot change the fact that the market already believes that spot ETFs will eventually be approved. Therefore, there is no need to pay attention to it. Bitcoin spot ETFs are highly likely to pass, either by the end or beginning of the year if it is fast, or around the middle of next year if it is slow.

None of us can predict this, but the hype has been ongoing, and Wall Street has no reason not to buy Bitcoin now because they all know it will pass. So when it truly passes, there will be a real large-scale correction in the market, and then after continuously verifying the bottom, the real bull market will start.

Yesterday’s market situation showed that the Southern Eastern British Bitcoin Futures ETF entered the top ten of the Hong Kong ETF sales market on October 24th, with a transaction volume of HKD 176 million on that day. The ETF price reached a new high of HKD 14.9 yesterday, more than double the low of $7.34 at the end of December last year.

Matrixport, a Singapore crypto financial services company under Wu Jihan, pointed out on social media that the skyrocketing funding rates for Bitcoin futures indicate that the market is being driven by FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment. According to statistics, Bitcoin’s market share has reached 52.1%, and its trading volume has skyrocketed to $29 billion in the past 24 hours. Matrixport stated that with its validated trading model, they are steadily achieving their target price of $45,000 for Bitcoin for 2023.

According to CoinGecko data, the market share of Bitcoin has risen to a new high since April 2021, temporarily reporting 51.4%; The market share of Ethereum is temporarily reported at 16.5%.

On October 25, Gio Viciioso, the head of CME’s cryptocurrency business, stated that the company was “already prepared” for this Tuesday’s Bitcoin rebound. He pointed out that the market has high expectations for the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, and not only retail investors but also very diverse participants, including macro hedge funds and banks, are flocking to this field. People have developed a “new interest” and “appetite” for cryptocurrencies, mainly Bitcoin.

Although it is still too early to say that the cryptocurrency spring has arrived, the market momentum indicates that investors are preparing for the possible approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

This week, Bitcoin reached a high point at $36,000, satisfying the upward momentum. In the short term, there is a demand for a pullback, but the medium-term structure still targets the top range of $37,755 to $40,505. This is expected to occur by the end of the year or before Q1 next year, and it’s likely to be a phased top.

After reaching the top at the end of the year, we expect a phased decline to follow. Entering at the current price is seen as chasing the price, with short-term profit potential and medium-term risks of getting trapped. If you wait for a second pullback, you can consider mid-December and mid-Q1 next year, which is likely a relatively low entry point before the consensus bullish trend.

ETH

This week, Ethereum touched the key level of $1,857, a pivotal point for bulls and bears. In the short term, it broke through a seven-month-long downtrend with strong volume support below $1.8K, indicating a predominantly bearish sentiment. It is recommended to watch for a retest of $1,857 from above for a potential shift from bearish to bullish.

API

As a narrative-based project, the short-term four-hour chart is approaching the end of a symmetrical triangle pattern and showing signs of an upward move to $1.225 and $1.271. Fibonacci sequences can assess exit points based on corresponding target prices. It is recommended to hold above the $0.996 support level.

Macro: PMI is stronger than market expectations, US dollar rebound, Musk worries about the escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict

The US dollar index fell first and then rose, reaching an intraday low of 105.36 during the session. It recovered all lost ground and returned to the 106 level, ultimately closing 0.61% higher at 106.24. US bond yields rose first and then fell, with the 10-year US bond yield remaining at 4.8% and closing at 4.819%. The two-year US Treasury yield stood above 5.1% and briefly rose to an intraday high of 5.133%, ultimately closing at 5.108%.

Spot gold plummeted significantly during the European trading session, dropping to an intraday low of $1,953.70, before rebounding and returning above $1,970, ultimately closing down 0.09% at $1,971.06 per ounce; Spot silver failed to stabilize above the $23 level and ultimately closed 0.28% lower at $22.91 per ounce.

The three major US stock indexes collectively closed higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.62%, the Nasdaq up 0.93%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.73%, and digital currency concept stocks significantly closing higher. Coinbase rose more than 6%, while MicroStrategy and Riot Blockchain both rose more than 10%.

The PMI of both manufacturing and service industries in the United States in October was stronger than market expectations (the initial value of Markit’s service industry PMI in October reached 50.9, a new high since September 2022), and both stood above the “boom and bust” range.

The overly strong data has directly driven the rebound of the US dollar, and this report highlights why it is too early to turn bearish on the US dollar now, even though the forces hindering its continued rise have begun to form.

The Palestinian-Israeli conflict has resulted in over 7200 deaths on both sides, and 1.6 million people have been displaced in Gaza. The Israeli ambassador has requested the resignation of the United Nations Secretary General. US military bases in the Middle East continue to face attacks, and the National Defense Forces have postponed ground attacks due to “strategic considerations.”

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict continues to escalate, and even Musk said there is a possibility of entering the Third World War. With the passage of time and the continuous fermentation of geopolitical conflicts, these conflicts will likely escalate, ultimately laying the foundation for a true Third World War. Then the world will enter a state of war, where hundreds of people will be displaced, without a place to live or work, and global finance will be greatly impacted, accompanied by the blockade and sanctions of the US dollar channel, In times of chaos, cryptocurrencies will definitely be accepted by countries around the world.

So risks are also opportunities. For the future of blockchain and cryptocurrency, we have a hundred times more confidence. In the global financial market and the internet web3 market, blockchain and cryptocurrency will definitely receive their due share.