Daily News | Nearly 30K BTCs Were Transferred to CEX Before Grayscale Won the Lawsuit, The Probability of BTC Spot ETFs Being Approved Within 2023 Is High

Crypto Daily Digest: Nearly 30K BTCs were transferred to CEX before Grayscale won the lawsuit, and the probability of Bitcoin spot ETFs being approved within 2023 is high

Let’s take a look at the progress related to the Grayscale victory.

According to Santiment’s data, nearly 30,000 BTCs (worth approximately $822 million) were transferred to addresses related to centralized trading platforms before the Grayscale and SEC key rulings. The ruling led to a 6% surge in Bitcoin prices, pushing BTC to $28,000.

Santiment said, “Before Grayscale won the lawsuit, the supply of Bitcoin trading platforms significantly increased. It is clear that the relevant departments know that this result will inevitably increase the market value of the crypto market.”

Previously, wallets holding 100,000 to 10,000 BTCs hoarded approximately $388 million in BTCs the day before the Grayscale victory news. Santiment monitoring data shows that whale and shark addresses may have been previously informed of the Grayscale and SEC litigation results. The day before this news was released, wallets holding 10-10,000 BTCs accumulated BTCs worth $388.3 million.

However, although Grayscale wins the lawsuit, it is unlikely to prevent Bitcoin from ending with a negative monthly return in August. At the beginning of this month, the price of BTC was still above $29,000, but it is currently hovering above $27,000. The performance of Bitcoin in August has brought uncertainty to the trend in September. Record low volatility, declining trading volume, and a flash crash in the price range of $25000 during August.

James Butterfill, research director at CoinShares, said that the price drop in August “highlighted the vulnerability of Bitcoin in the face of larger transactions, which has become even more severe in the current low trading volume situation.”

Butterfill predicts that market hesitation will be a characteristic in early September. He expects traders to waver between excitement about the possible approval of ETF applications and doubts about SEC approval. Although Wednesday’s court ruling favors Grayscale, Butterfill said, “It is unlikely to accelerate the SEC’s approval timeline as there is still a possibility of appeal.”

Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyfart tweeted, “We expect to receive a large number of delayed orders this week. We believe that the likelihood of approval soon after the court ruling (Bitcoin spot ETFs) is extremely low.” He also believes that Bitcoin spot ETFs will be launched before the end of 2024, which is almost certain.

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas posted earlier today, “Analyst James Seyfart and I have increased the probability of Bitcoin spot ETFs being launched this year to 75% (with a probability of 95% by the end of 2024).”

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

Despite being influenced by Grayscale news this week, it only resulted in a minor rebound. Yesterday, it hit the neckline at 27,283 US dollars and fell back again, indicating that the overall market still views it with a bearish perspective. It is estimated that the monthly closing will be around 26,975 US dollars.

CYBER

Last week’s strategy involved sequential positions at $4,100, $3,933, and $3,783 respectively, followed by a substantial market performance. With the target of $17.79 as indicated by the “draw sword from the scab” pattern and the rapid and aggressive upward movement by DWF market makers, it is not difficult to imagine that there might be a final wave of market performance in the short term.

We’ve mentioned that having such accurate target levels in the secondary market suggests that market makers are highly concentrated in their trading, similar to how they operate in the spot market and contract market harvesting. CYBER is no exception.

For short-term long positions, it’s advised to hold steady at the support level of $8.185, and a conservative approach would be to wait for a breakthrough of the recent high at $8.980 to enter additional positions. Four resistance levels are $10.479, $11.883, $13.019, and $14.152. Three upward targets are $12.277, $15.62, and the peak target of $17.79.

DOGE

The overall daily trend has been in a substantial downtrend for 835 days, and a significant market performance is anticipated before the end of the year. Holding steady at the support level of $0.05099, if an independent trend emerges, sequential upward targets are expected at $0.10799, $0.15879, $0.43360, and a new historical high.

Macro: Employment and GDP data below expectations, the Federal Reserve may not raise interest rates this year

Spot gold rose for three consecutive days, briefly reaching the $1,950 mark during the session, closing up 0.26% at $1,942.42 per ounce. Spot silver briefly reached the $25 mark in the intraday trading, marking the first time in over a month. However, it regained its intraday gains and closed down 0.38% at $24.61 per ounce. The three major stock indices of the US stock market closed up throughout the day, with the DJIA up 0.11%, the Nasdaq up 0.54%, and the S&P 500 index up 0.39%.

Last night, two important data caused intense market feedback: the number of ADP jobs in the United States in July was far below market expectations, consistent with the unexpected decrease in job vacancies announced the previous day, and the labor market is cooling down;

The GDP of the United States in the second quarter was revised down to 2.1%, lower than the market expectation of 2.4%. The weaker-than-expected US economic data has strengthened investors’ expectations for the Federal Reserve to suspend interest rate hikes.

The Federal Reserve often says “make decisions based on data,” so it is currently in a stage of overreacting to data, whether it is good, bad, important, or unimportant. Because the Federal Reserve refers to a comprehensive series of data, it is definitely not a single data module.

After releasing private sector employment data and the revised second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) of the United States last night, traders in federal funds rate futures continued to raise expectations that the Federal Reserve will no longer raise interest rates this year.

According to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fed Watch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve remaining inactive in September is 90.5%, higher than the 86% seen a day ago. Traders expect the chances of holding still in November and December to be 57% and 55.5%, respectively, keeping the federal funds rate in the range of 5.25% to 5.5%.

The former Chairman of the Boston Fed stated yesterday (Wednesday) that if the job market and economic growth continue to slow down at the current slow pace, the Fed may end its interest rate hike cycle.