Daily News | Bear Market Has Ended, XRP’s Rulings Remain Uncertain, Interest Rate Hikes Loom, Focus on US Retail Data

Crypto Daily Digest: The bear market has ended, XRP rulings remain uncertain, and zkSync Era surpasses Arbitrum to become the L2 king

Is the bear market really coming to an end? Recently, DeFiance Capital founder Arthur posted on social media that he personally believes that July 14, 2023 marks the official end of the 2022-2023 bear market for the following reasons:

1.The worst macroeconomic tightening has passed, CPI has decreased, and real interest rates are positive. It is possible to see interest rate cuts next year.

2.Since BlackRock applied for Bitcoin ETF, institutions have continuously accepted cryptocurrency as an asset class.

3.If the SEC cannot win even against the token (XRP) that is most likely to be defined as a security, then the likelihood of other tokens being recognized as securities is greatly reduced.

4.Most short-term speculators have left the market, and apart from some clear unlocking schedules, current coin holders may not sell in the short term.

5.There is a serious shortage of non BTC and ETH configurations in the market, and there is still much to be done.

6.Hong Kong’s policy of welcoming cryptocurrency is true and reliable, which will open the door to a new world for Asian financial institutions to enter cryptocurrency in a legal way.

After experiencing “Crazy Thursday” last week, the popularity of XRP has now cooled down.

Former SEC official John Reed Stark has stated that the ruling on XRP may be appealed and overturned. Stark stated that the court’s ruling in the Ripple case is unsettling in multiple ways. The ruling seems to violate the mission of the SEC to protect investors.

Stark further stated that the ruling is not only arrogant, but also insulting, as it assumes that retail investors are usually foolish. The ruling on XRP coin is likely to be appealed.

Brad Garlinghouse, CEO of Ripple, believes that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will face a long process before it has the opportunity to appeal against the ruling of the case against Ripple Labs. He said, “From a legal point of view, the current law stipulates that XRP is not a security. Frankly, before the SEC has the opportunity to appeal (which will take several years), we are very optimistic.”

Garlinghouse also stressed that this is the first time that the SEC has lost the “cryptocurrency case”. He called the SEC a “bully” and pursued participants in the encryption industry who were unable to “take appropriate defense”.

According to L2BEAT data, the number of transactions of zkSync Era in the past 30 days was 23.75 million, more than that of Arbitrum, 23.59 million, making it the largest Ethereum L2 project in the past month; MakerDAO co-founded Rune and purchased MKR again after a month and a half; Sui’s active address count has exceeded 1 million; Worldcoin, a encryption company co founded by OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, announced that World ID has registered over 2 million people during the testing phase.

Today’s Main Token Trends

BTC

This week, the market continues to experience fluctuations and intense battles between bulls and bears. In the short-term, a possible retracement is expected, with a crucial support at $30,200 USD and a major resistance at $29,495 USD. On the upside, the targets are set at $32,235 USD and $33,085 USD, with top-level targets at $36,500 USD and $41,550 USD.

ETH

The daily chart shows a bullish head and shoulders pattern. Risk-taking traders should closely monitor the key support level at $1,918 USD, while conservative traders may wait for a breakout above the key resistance at $2,036 USD before entering long positions. The mid-term target is set at $2,358 USD, and a breakout above $2,036 USD indicates a bullish signal.

XRP

After a significant price action, XRP is experiencing a high-level convergence. The current price momentum suggests potential targets at $1.0105 USD, $1.3705 USD, and $1.9755 USD. A shrinking price movement and volume are considered bearish signals.

GT

In the short-term, attention should be given to the $4.1882 USD level, with a potential breakout towards the previous high at $4.4890 USD, and a higher neckline at $4.6420 USD. The mid-term support is at $3.6040 USD, while the maximum support remains around the quarterly trendline, targeting significant highs at $28.56 USD, $39.15 USD, and $45.05 USD.

Macro: CPI is still a market catalyst, the US is expected to increase interest rates, investors eye tomorrow’s “horror data”

The past week’s US CPI data has shaken global financial markets.

As inflation in the United States appears to be under control, investors will closely monitor any differences in economic development across countries, with the focus likely on China’s GDP data and US retail sales data. The growth prospects of these two world’s largest economies are likely to affect market sentiment.

In addition, inflation data will continue to dominate the economic agenda. Countries that publish CPI data include Canada, Japan and the United Kingdom. The arrival of the financial reporting season may also set off new Waves.

Due to the upcoming interest rate meeting in July, Federal Reserve officials will enter a period of silence. But this week, several hawkish officials expressed support for further interest rate hikes.

Among them, Neil Kashkari, Chairman of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve and 2023 FOMC voting committee, stated that banks must be prepared to raise interest rates in case policymakers need to further raise interest rates to combat entrenched inflation. Federal Reserve Governor Waller also stated that he supports raising interest rates at the July FOMC meeting and may need to raise rates twice this year, each by 25 basis points.

In terms of dove stance, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostick stated that he believes interest rates do not need to rise further, and current policies are “clearly” in restrictive areas, and the Federal Reserve can remain patient.

Despite the frequent reports of inflation data, Federal Reserve Governor Waller, who spoke at the end of this week, stated that he still supports the possibility of raising interest rates twice this year as he needs to see more evidence of a “sustained” decline in inflation.

In fact, it is not just inflation data that drives the Fed’s decisions, which complicates investors’ assessments. As Waller said, “The strong strength of the labor market and the overall robust performance of the US economy provide us with room to further tighten policies.”

On Tuesday, US retail sales data for June, known as “horror data,” will be released, with retail sales expected to accelerate slightly to 0.5% month on month, indicating that consumer spending is booming during the summer peak season. The data on new housing starts and construction permits will be announced on Wednesday, and the total number of housing sales will be announced on Thursday.

If the data further strengthens the signs of recovery in the US real estate market, the US dollar may temporarily receive some boost.