Pig prices fall below 5 yuan per jin; who is losing money, and who is still expanding production?

Text | “Finance” Reporter Zou Biying

Editor | Wang Yanchun

Since the end of March, domestic pig slaughter prices have fallen below 5 yuan per jin, breaking through many farmers’ cost thresholds and reaching a new low in seven years. For the pig industry that has experienced multiple cycle fluctuations, such a rapid and sustained decline remains rare.

Recently, Li Ming, who lives in Zigong City, Sichuan Province, found that pork prices at the vegetable market have dropped to 10 yuan per jin, down 2 yuan from before the New Year. Coincidentally, at Beijing’s Xiaoxiang Supermarket online store, pork prices are also quite affordable. On April 7, “Finance” saw that high-quality chilled fresh pork mince was priced at 9.81 yuan per jin, and 400g of high-quality chilled front leg meat was priced at 10.5 yuan per jin.

Behind this, since the first quarter of 2026, pig slaughter prices across many regions in China have continued to decline, recently generally falling below 5 yuan per jin, with some areas approaching 4.5 yuan per jin. In stark contrast, including costs such as piglets, feed, labor, depreciation, and financial expenses, the current average total cost in the pig farming industry remains in the 6-8 yuan per jin range.

A pig slaughter price around 5 yuan per jin indicates that the breeding side has entered a state of full loss. Data provided by Zhuochuang Information to “Finance” shows that from March 27 to April 2, the nationwide average price for lean pigs was 9.36 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 2.70% week-on-week. Domestic piglet prices also declined week-on-week; as of last Friday (April 3), the average price for 7kg external three-yuan piglets was 234.72 yuan per head, down 15.75% week-on-week. Farmers’ willingness to restock has clearly cooled, and market expectations for future pig prices are becoming more cautious.

The dilemma of increasing pig production without increasing profits is reflected in the financial reports of leading companies. According to the 2025 annual report released by Muyuan Foods at the end of March, the company achieved a record slaughter volume of 7.798 million heads and a net profit attributable to the parent of 77.98M yuan, but the net profit fell 13.39% year-on-year, with a sharp decline of about 90% in the fourth quarter. Industry supply exceeds demand, and even leading enterprises find it difficult to remain unaffected.

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Veterinary Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told “Finance” that it takes about 10 months for the capacity adjustments of breeding sows to transmit to the production end. The adjustment of capacity during pig price rises (or when prices are relatively good) and declines is asymmetric. The downward phase of the pig cycle may last longer, especially when the capacity base is stable and industry resilience improves, leading to repeated fluctuations at low levels.

“Some say they are quitting, but then buy 300 pigs again.”

Chen Xiao’s parents have been in the pig industry for thirty years, raising pigs from a few hundred to over 1,000. From 2019 to the first half of 2021, the pig industry was profitable, but from the second half of 2021 to the end of 2025, three rounds of African swine fever outbreaks occurred, and only in 2024 did they barely make some money; the other years were losses. Before 2026, Chen Xiao’s family bought all their pigs, and his parents originally planned to retire peacefully. However, recently, his mother, who had firmly said she would no longer raise pigs, bought back 300 piglets to raise.

“Fewer and fewer small farmers are raising pigs around me; some leave, some retreat.” In the past, raising pigs brought in money, and they bought high-priced properties for their children. But recently, with pig slaughter prices below 5 yuan, Chen Xiao feels complicated but can’t persuade his parents. In fact, this situation is quite common. Zhu Zengyong told “Finance” that whether family farms or leading pig companies, they generally have a naturally bullish outlook on the market. For farmers, due to information asymmetry and the lag between breeding sows and piglet slaughter, when pig prices are above cost, capacity tends to increase rather than decrease, favoring expansion. Some leading companies, while focusing on medium- and long-term development and maintaining stable capacity, may also tend to increase production on a stable basis.

“It takes about 10 months from breeding sows to slaughtered pigs. Farmers will predict supply and demand for the next 10 months based on current prices and profits, and decide whether to restock or cut back. Such a long interval makes future predictions susceptible to errors influenced by various information factors,” Zhu Zengyong said. During pig price upcycles, profits increase steadily, encouraging farmers to expand production when they see profits. Conversely, during downcycles, they only reduce capacity after slaughter prices fall below cost, especially below cash costs.

Large companies face similar issues. According to China Business News, four major listed pig companies—Muyuan, Wens, New Hope, and Zhengbang Technology—sold a total of 144.54 million pigs in 2025, an increase of 22.08 million heads compared to 2024. Wens disclosed at the end of February that its net profit in 2025 was 15.49B yuan, down 43.59% year-on-year; during the reporting period, Wens sold 40.47 million pigs, with an average selling price of 13.71 yuan per kilogram, down 17.95% year-on-year.

Other leading companies also reported losses. At the end of January, Zhengbang Technology announced an expected net loss of 470 million to 600 million yuan for 2025, compared to profit last year. During the period, the company slaughtered 8.5369 million pigs, a 105.87% increase year-on-year, with pig sales revenue of 5.24B yuan, and an average selling price of 993.17 yuan per head, down about 290 yuan from last year.

The pig slaughter price at the end of March this year was the lowest since June 2018. Zhu Zengyong told “Finance” that pig prices are determined by supply and demand. Seasonal off-peak periods and declining medium- and long-term demand, combined with ample supply, drive prices down. From the demand side, per capita pork consumption has decreased for two consecutive years, reaching 26.6 kg in 2025, down 5.4% year-on-year; pork’s share in meat consumption dropped from 62% in 2018 to 58% in 2025. Currently, consumption is at its lowest point of the year, with demand 10-15% below pre-Chinese New Year levels. On the supply side, the number of breeding sows nationwide decreased from 40.78 million at the end of 2024 to 39.61 million at the end of 2025, a reduction of 1.16 million, but the PSY level (pigs weaned per sow per year) increased rapidly in 2025, leading to ample supply in the first quarter of 2026.

“Pig supply in the first quarter of this year remains relatively high,” Zhu Zengyong analyzed. Before the Spring Festival, pig prices briefly rose due to holiday consumption, but some farmers did not sell their pigs. After the festival, prices continued to fall, and in the two weeks after the holiday, prices dropped to around 10 yuan per kilogram, triggering panic selling. The discrepancy between capacity adjustments and actual market supply and demand, as well as future expectations, causes the pig cycle to fluctuate repeatedly.

Policy support and market clearing game

A report by Zhuochuang Information pointed out that from March 27 to April 2, the national average price of fresh white pork was 12.27 yuan per kilogram, down 2.31% week-on-week. The decline in pork prices persisted; after a brief period of reduced slaughter volume at the end of the month to resist price drops, slaughter volume increased again, with abundant supply and smooth procurement by slaughterhouses. On the demand side, some regions’ schools are on spring break, reducing distribution orders; before Qingming Festival, rural consumption slightly increased, but overall pork supply remains large, with weak demand, and prices continue to decline.

Currently, pig prices have fallen below 10 yuan per kilogram, reaching lows not seen in recent years, and the industry is generally in a loss-making state. With costs around 13-16 yuan per kilogram, self-breeding and self-rearing models are losing about 200-400 yuan per head, and the pig-to-grain ratio has fallen to about 5:1, entering the national first-level warning zone. Since 2026, the government has initiated at least two rounds of frozen pork stockpiling.

On April 2, the Ministry of Commerce announced on its official website that to maintain market stability and better utilize the central reserves, the Ministry, along with the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance, is conducting central reserve frozen pork stockpiling. The notice from China Storage and Transportation Network on April 2 stated that about 10k tons of frozen pork will be auctioned for reserve stockpiling. The first reserve stockpiling in 2026 was on March 4, also involving 10k tons.

In fact, as early as September 2024, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs began guiding industry capacity reduction based on monitoring data. Since 2025, it has intensified efforts through capacity monitoring and early warning, task decomposition and implementation, issuing notices to key provinces, and interviews with leading enterprises, effectively promoting high-level capacity adjustments. On June 10, 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a national pig production dispatch meeting, proposing to reduce the number of breeding sows nationwide by 1 million, to 39.5 million. The plan includes optimizing pig production, increasing culling of weak piglets, lowering slaughter weights, and reducing the national reserve weight requirement to 115 kg; strengthening monitoring, with local authorities including secondary breeding and other factors in their reports, submitting monthly updates on capacity, stock, average weight, and secondary breeding to the Ministry. This was the first time since the African swine fever outbreak in 2019 that a capacity reduction plan of this scale was launched under normal cycle conditions.

In September 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission, together with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and other departments, held a symposium on pig capacity regulation, again signaling clear policies to reduce capacity. Leading breeding groups are unlikely to add new capacity in the short to medium term. Zhu Zengyong also pointed out that capacity regulation requires a combination of effective market mechanisms and proactive government policies.

Meanwhile, Zhu Zengyong believes that although the reserve pork stockpiling policy involves relatively small volumes, it can influence market sentiment. Short-term reserve purchases and stockpiling can guide farmers’ expectations through government intervention, preventing panic selling. Compared to previous pig cycles, recent cycles show a trend toward weaker amplitude, with narrower price fluctuations and less extreme volatility.

“After African swine fever, the stability and production efficiency of the pig industry have greatly improved, and its ability to resist external shocks has increased. Under market regulation and policy control, supply and demand are gradually shifting from cyclical excess to better matching, preventing large-scale price surges. The pace of capacity reduction is moderate, which will promote more benign, narrow-range cyclical fluctuations in pig prices,” Zhu Zengyong said.

Li Jing, a pig market analyst at Zhuochuang Information, predicts that in the coming week, the national market may fluctuate downward, with prices possibly between 8.85 and 9.08 yuan per kilogram. On the supply side, slaughter volume may gradually increase, and farmers may accelerate pig removal, leading to a potential bearish impact on supply. Subsequently, the market may experience a brief bottoming out followed by restocking, with pig prices temporarily rebounding during the downward correction. Afterward, prices may decline again.

Zhu Zengyong forecasts that pig prices will gradually recover in the second half of the year. Currently, the policy focus is on promoting supply-demand matching and gentle price recovery, avoiding sustained large increases or decreases in pork prices.