Shouchuang Futures: Oil prices fluctuate at high levels, PX futures rise sharply then fall back

On the supply side, as March begins, the PX industry enters the spring maintenance season, with Asian and domestic PX loads having declined for two consecutive weeks. Geopolitical risks causing oil supply disruptions have forced refineries to significantly cut production, and maintenance plans for PX both domestically and internationally have increased. PX start-up rates are expected to continue declining, and PX will enter a destocking phase.
On the demand side, downstream demand is seasonally recovering, with polyester and terminal weaving operations gradually resuming. However, geopolitical uncertainties are causing sharp fluctuations in raw material prices, increasing operational risks for real economy enterprises. Some terminals lack new orders, leading to a decrease in factory operating rates.
In summary, geopolitical factors still dominate short-term market trends. The sharp fluctuations in raw material prices are unfavorable for downstream and terminal operations, with negative feedback from the terminal becoming evident, potentially posing risks to market sustainability. Future focus should be on geopolitical developments, Strait of Hormuz navigation conditions, and changes in upstream and downstream plant operations. (First Capital Futures)