Guoxin Futures: Easing rate cut expectations converge, gold and silver fluctuate and weaken

The precious metals market continues its downward trend, with gold and silver prices both weakening. The main contract for Shanghai Gold fell sharply by 4.64%, closing at 1062.00 yuan per gram; the main contract for Shanghai Silver dropped significantly by 10.35%, closing at 17,984 yuan per kilogram.
The market is mainly influenced by signals from the Federal Reserve and geopolitical developments. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve has held steady for the second time this year, maintaining interest rates in the 3.5%-3.75% range, in line with market expectations. However, the dot plot shows that 7 members do not expect a rate cut this year, an increase of one from before, indicating further convergence of rate cut expectations. Powell’s statements leaned towards caution, noting that the impact of Middle East tensions on the U.S. economy remains uncertain, and that rising energy prices will push inflation higher, but the extent and duration of this effect still need to be observed. He emphasized, “If inflation shows no progress, there will be no rate cuts,” and even mentioned the possibility that “the next move could be a rate hike,” with the convergence of rate cut expectations becoming the dominant factor suppressing precious metal valuations.
Geopolitically, Iran launched the 63rd round of “Real Commitment-4” operations, launching large-scale missile attacks on energy facilities related to the U.S. in the region, but market sensitivity to geopolitical risks has dulled, and the safe-haven sentiment has weakened.
In the short term, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance is clear, and the convergence of rate cut expectations continues to exert downward pressure on precious metals, with market sentiment leaning towards caution. Technically, after Shanghai Gold broke below the 1100 yuan level, it may continue to face short-term pressure, with support around 1050 yuan; silver is more volatile, with primary support near 17,800 yuan. In terms of operations, it is recommended that existing gold long positions be limited to within 30% of the total to cope with increased short-term volatility; for silver, adopt a cautious approach, waiting for macro sentiment to stabilize. (Guoxin Futures)