Daily strong top pattern appears, the April breakdown window has already opened!

Focusing on the core of Chan Theory: trading small within large, and linking levels together, analyzing the current market from weekly, daily, 4-hour, and 30-minute levels step by step. No predictions, only following; clearly providing structural classification and operational responses.

1. Weekly framework: the decline is not over, turning points expected in the second half of the year
This bull market started from 155476, forming a 7-wave upward structure on the weekly chart. After peaking at 126199.63, the weekly chart broke below a key support, creating a destructive top structure.
The current weekly decline wave has not ended yet, corresponding to a double-central bearish trend on the daily level. Only when the daily trend diverges and the weekly decline wave confirms its end will a weekly rebound of the same level begin, which is the main focus of our layout for the second half of the year.
From the time cycle perspective, the key breakdown and divergence nodes are most likely to be completed within April; after making new lows, a reversal can be discussed.

2. Daily level: at the end of the double-central, strong top pattern established
From the high point downward, the daily chart shows a standard double-central bearish trend, belonging to a trend-based decline structure. Recently, the rebound touched the daily downtrend line resistance but failed to break through effectively, forming a strong daily top pattern. In Chan Theory, this signal is a clear warning of bullish risk: prioritize taking profits on long positions, and wait for a 4-hour sell signal to short on the right side. Currently, the daily upward wave only shows a top signal, not fully ended; the pattern formed over the weekend needs to be observed in this week’s intraday rebound strength. Weak rebounds confirm a bearish trend; strong rebounds extend the central oscillation.

3. 4-hour and 30-minute: short-term structure projection, core support at 69k
Within the daily rebound, corresponding to a 4-hour 1-2-3 wave structure, the rally’s momentum has weakened after reaching a high, destroying the previous short-term upward trend.
Currently, the 30-minute chart shows a downward wave, breaking short-term support, making the rebound a high-altitude shorting opportunity. The key support below is 69k, the midline of the recent two-month oscillation central zone, where bulls and bears repeatedly contest, representing a critical watershed.
- If the 4-hour decline effectively breaks below 69k, the daily wave decline will officially start, heading straight for previous lows and new lows;
- If it only slightly pierces and then rebounds, the rebound near 71,500 will face resistance, forming a secondary bearish structure, also pointing downward.
The secondary buy level on the 4-hour chart is around 65,600; the probability of directly dropping to this level is low, so observing the central zone break is the main signal.

4. News and technical aspects: technical leading, resonance to catch turning points
Recently, the market has been repeatedly disturbed by news, but the technical structure has already pointed to a strong resistance zone. Even without negative news, a correction is inevitable.
In short-term trading, ignore news and focus solely on technicals; for major trend turning points, wait for divergence and news resonance to improve success rate. Volume increase during declines and volume decrease during rebounds are typical features of a downtrend continuation.

The structure is becoming clearer and clearer; stick to the Chan Theory framework, avoid chasing rallies and panic selling. In a bear market, prioritize survival; opportunities come from patience. Wait for the weekly endpoint, and seize the start of the second half of the year's market. #Gate13周年Dr.Han公开信 #Gate13周年 $BTC