Trump announces the blockade of the strait, essentially a psychological pressure tactic and a geopolitical bargaining move, and has not been truly implemented. Therefore, the market only shows pulse-like fluctuations without a trend-breaking move.

Market judgment
Oil prices and cryptocurrency prices are linked: oil prices only spike and then fall back, while crypto prices experience slight corrections, overall remaining within the original range of fluctuation, with no substantial trend change, indicating that the market has priced in a "high probability that the blockade will not actually be implemented."
Bargaining logic verification: Iran has controlled the Strait of Hormuz for decades and has mature countermeasures; high oil prices would severely impact the U.S. economy, so Trump cannot sustain a blockade long-term. This move's core purpose is maximum pressure, aiming to gain leverage for future negotiations. Ultimately, it is highly likely to return to negotiation bargaining rather than full-scale conflict.
Short position space judgment: Based on the premise that there is no actual implementation, the short positions are not expected to be extremely deep. The first target is 70,300, the second target is 69,000, and profits should be taken in stages within the range, avoiding blind pursuit of short positions.
$BTC
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