Today's Perspective: Where Does the Certainty and Confidence of Chinese Assets Come From?

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■ Xie Ruolin

In recent times, international geopolitical conflicts have escalated, crude oil prices have swung violently, and global inflation expectations have risen accordingly. When “uncertainty” becomes the only certainty in the global macro environment, the “safety” of China’s assets is becoming the core proposition that global capital is re-examining, and “buying China means buying safety” is increasingly becoming a consensus among investors. The author believes that this sense of confidence comes from at least three dimensions:

First, confidence comes from the continuity and stability of macro policies. In 2026, China will implement more proactive fiscal policies. Using tools such as ultra-long special treasury bonds, the “two dual” construction will be solidly advanced, and the “two new” policies will continue to be implemented; the central government has specifically earmarked 100 billion yuan and rolled out a package of 6 fiscal and financial coordination policies to boost domestic demand… Incremental policies are being introduced one after another and continue to take effect, providing important support for macroeconomic progress under downward pressure and for steady improvement.

From the perspective of monetary policy, the People’s Bank of China adheres to a supportive monetary policy stance, implements a moderately accommodative monetary policy, coordinates efforts of both total and structural tools, and comprehensively applies various monetary policy instruments to keep liquidity ample. At present, social financing conditions in China are loose; the overall growth of financial totals is reasonable, creating a suitable monetary and financial environment for the economy to rebound and improve. By the end of February, the stock of social financing had grown by 8.2% year on year; broad money (M2) had grown by 9% year on year—both clearly higher than the growth rate of nominal GDP. In the first two months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing reached 9.6 trillion yuan, which is 316.2 billion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 5.61 trillion yuan. Overall, financial data show the characteristics of “stable total volume and optimized structure,” and the strength of financial support for the real economy remains steady.

Judging from the performance so far, 2026 has started strongly, with a good opening. The latest data show that in the first two months of this year, industrial value added above designated size grew by 6.3% year on year; fixed-asset investment has turned from decline to growth—particularly, infrastructure investment grew by 11.4%—making it an important support for stabilizing growth. In foreign trade, in the first two months of this year, the total export value reached $656.78 billion, up 21.80% year on year. Among them, exports of electromechanical products grew by 24.3% year on year, reflecting that the global competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry remains solid.

Second, confidence comes from the industrial structure’s leap toward the “new.” In the first two months of this year, the added value of high-tech manufacturing above designated size and that of digital product manufacturing increased by 13.1% and 8.8% year on year, respectively; the added value of smart vehicle equipment manufacturing and smart unmanned aircraft manufacturing increased by 46.3% and 26.6%, respectively.

The “15th Five-Year Plan” outline clearly calls for accelerating the development of strategic emerging industries such as new-generation information technology, new energy, new materials, intelligent connected new-energy vehicles, robots, biopharmaceuticals, high-end equipment, and aerospace. This means that China not only needs to focus on building a batch of emerging pillar industries with great growth potential, high technological content, and broad penetration areas, but also to make forward-looking plans for future industries. From domestic large models to humanoid robots, from brain-computer interfaces to 6G, China’s systematic breakthroughs in technology and industries are reshaping the global landscape of technological competition.

At the same time, China’s R&D spending intensity continues to increase, and a large number of specialized and innovative “little giant” enterprises are emerging. Industrial upgrading driven by technological breakthroughs gives Chinese companies higher gross profit margins and stronger pricing power. China is moving from “manufacturing and assembly” toward “core standards.” This kind of “moat” at the industrial level is precisely the core driving force behind long-term value appreciation of assets.

Third, confidence comes from the strong support of the domestic market, as well as the consensus formed globally on “safety premium.” When deploying its 2026 government work tasks, China’s 2026 Government Work Report first emphasizes “making efforts to build a strong domestic market.” China is the world’s second-largest consumer market, and there is still ample room for upgrading consumption structure. In the first two months, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year on year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared with December last year; online retail sales of goods and services increased by 9.2%, and the potential of service consumption is being released faster. China’s advantage of an enormous scale market and the resilience of domestic demand provide sufficient strategic depth to withstand external fluctuations.

From the valuation dimension, China’s assets also stand out with a clear cost-performance advantage. As of March 24, the price-to-earnings ratio of the CSI 300 was 13.74, and the Hang Seng Tech Index was 21.41—both far below the Nasdaq index’s 32.09. This valuation “discount” effect, together with the stability of China’s macro policies and the repair of economic fundamentals, is attracting global capital inflows. As multiple foreign institutional reports have stated, the “safety” of China’s assets is being repriced, and against the backdrop of global shortages of safe assets, “buying China means buying safety” is becoming an increasingly common consensus among investors.

Volatility is only the surface appearance of the market; safety is the true underlying color of an asset. On the turbulent sea, the value of a ship depends not only on its sailing speed, but also on whether the hull is solid, firm, and steady. In 2026, China’s assets are becoming the “ballast stone” that global capital is rediscovering.

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Editor: Gao Jia