Recently, while analyzing market maker data, I noticed that the reason altcoins aren't rising seems to involve structural changes that can't be explained by traditional market cycles.

What becomes clear from actual OTC trading data is that the period during which altcoins continue to rise has shortened from about 60 days last year to roughly 20 days this year. In other words, it's compressed to one-third. This isn't just a temporary stagnation; the very structure of the market is changing.

Traditionally, capital would first flow into Bitcoin, then spread through Ethereum, creating a cycle that fueled a narrative-driven bull market. But by 2025, this traditional pattern has started to break down.

The reason is that ETFs and digital asset treasury companies are forming a "closed garden" by concentrating capital into Bitcoin, Ethereum, and some large-cap altcoins. Because investment is limited to these, capital isn't flowing into small- and mid-cap altcoins. A few large tokens are absorbing most of the new capital, while other altcoins remain stagnant.

Furthermore, individual investors' interest shifting toward themes like AI and quantum computing—topics popular in the stock market—is accelerating capital concentration in the crypto space. Interest in cryptocurrencies is becoming more dispersed.

Breaking this situation will require one of three scenarios: expanding the investment universe, a rise in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices that spills over into the entire altcoin market, or a return of individual investor interest from stocks back to cryptocurrencies.

Signs of expanding investment options are emerging through ETF applications for Solana and XRP. If Bitcoin (currently $70.74K) and Ethereum (currently $2.19K) rise, there’s potential for spillover into the altcoin market, but how much capital will actually flow in remains uncertain. Ideally, individual investors' interest would shift back from tech stocks to crypto, but that’s seen as the least likely scenario.

Ultimately, predictions based on the traditional four-year cycle no longer hold. We are now in a phase where reading the flow of liquidity and subtle shifts in investor sentiment is crucial. The fact that altcoins aren't rising depends on market mood.