Haitong Futures: Precious metals risk indicators remain high; watch out for subsequent market declines

The Federal Reserve’s dot plot for interest rate decisions shows that most voting members are fairly consistent in their stance, indicating only one rate cut will occur within this year. The dollar liquidity restrictions experienced in the first three quarters of this year are expected to persist. Currently, geopolitical developments are the biggest factor affecting precious metals, leading to a sell-off of precious metals and a shift toward crude oil amid liquidity constraints. Additionally, the Fed’s confirmation of liquidity restrictions has caused short-term corrections in precious metals. However, the leverage ratio on the COMEX market remains unresolved, and futures markets along with related fund VIX are high, so caution is needed for potential further declines. From a medium- to long-term perspective, the main international geopolitical risk narratives remain unchanged, and it is advisable to buy on dips and hold long-term positions. ( Haitong Futures )