#Gate广场四月发帖挑战

As of April 13, 2026 (current), there is no confirmed end date for major global wars; only institutional predictions and trend assessments:

1. Russia-Ukraine War (2022.2.24—present)

- Current situation: Year 5, with the front line locked in stalemate and a war of attrition.
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- Mainstream forecast (2026):
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- Autumn and winter of 2026: Most likely a ceasefire along the current front line (freezing the conflict), similar to the Korean Peninsula model.
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- Not complete peace: Territorial/political differences remain shelved long term, with a low-intensity standoff.
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- Conclusion: It will be difficult to truly end before the end of 2026; it is highly likely to become protracted.

2. U.S.-Israel—Iran conflict (2026.2—present)

- Current situation: About 2 months since the outbreak; missile/drone exchanges, and heightened tension in the Strait of Hormuz.
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- Institutional predictions (such as ICG):
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- Q2 2026 (April—June): About a 70% probability of a phased ceasefire.
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- Large-scale combat may end, but low-intensity confrontation could continue for another 6—12 months.
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- Risks: If it escalates into ground warfare or involves nuclear issues, it will become protracted (over 6 months).

3. Israel—Hamas (Gaza, 2023.10—present)

- Current situation: Ongoing for about a year and a half, with a severe humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
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- Forecast:
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- In the short term (within 2026), it is difficult to completely end; ceasefire attempts keep recurring, and the fighting remains a tug-of-war.

4. Historical reference (World War II)

- 1945.8.15: Japan announces its surrender
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- 1945.9.2: Surrender document signed; World War II formally ends
 

One-sentence summary

- Russia-Ukraine: Ceasefire by the end of 2026, but not peace
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- Middle East (U.S.-Iran): A ceasefire turning point around mid-2026 (4—6月) or the current ceasefire
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- Gaza: Still difficult to fully end within 2026