Recently, I noticed something interesting about Bitcoin's price behavior. The whales have been doing exactly the opposite of what retail does, and that's usually not a good sign for those buying on dips.

What happened is quite clear if you look at the data. A couple of weeks ago, when Bitcoin was falling sharply due to the situation in Iran, whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC bought aggressively. They accumulated quite a bit between late February and early March, when the price was between $62,900 and $69,600. But when Bitcoin reached $74,000, those same whales started selling. So far, they have liquidated about 66% of what they bought recently.

Meanwhile, retail investors are doing exactly the opposite. When the price drops below $70,000, they buy. It's the classic pattern you see before the correction continues lower. Small wallets (less than 0.01 BTC) keep accumulating as the price retraces.

What worries me is that nearly 43% of the total Bitcoin supply is in loss at these levels. That means every time the price rises, there's a wall of sellers who just want to exit at their purchase price. This happened exactly at $74,000: the rebound hit that entire whale supply taking profits and people wanting to get out of the red.

Market sentiment is in extreme fear (the index fell to 12), so technically the market could rebound. But the behavior of whales suggests that the big holders are waiting for Bitcoin to test $60,000 before any serious move upward. The pattern is the same as always: they sell every rally, retail buys every dip. This is resolved when one of the two runs out.