I just checked the Bitcoin chart and things are interesting. We are about to close March without entering the red, which would avoid a six-month streak of losses. The price is currently around $71,500, although the month has only increased by about 2%. If it drops before the end of the month, we would match the worst streak since August 2018 to January 2019, so these days are critical.

From a technical perspective, what catches my attention is that Bitcoin continues to hold well above the 200-week moving average, which is near $59,000. Two months ago, we touched $60,000, and since then we haven't fallen below. That level is a strong support historically, especially in bear markets. It was interesting to note that in 2022, it was the only time Bitcoin spent so much time below this line, from June to December.

Another thing that surprises me is how Bitcoin is regaining strength against gold. We are about to have the first positive monthly candle in eight months in that ratio, hovering around 16 ounces. Gold has fallen more than 25% from its January high, so Bitcoin is gaining ground. Historically, in each cycle, we see declines in that ratio from the maximum, and in this cycle, Bitcoin fell about 71% against gold since December 2024. These cycles typically last around 400 days, so we could be at a turning point.

If Bitcoin maintains that support of the 200WMA while regaining strength against gold, the overall bullish trend would remain intact. That’s what I’ll be watching in the coming days.