Zhang Jinlei: Gold fluctuates in a narrow band, waiting quietly for the final ultimatum to land

On April 7th, gold experienced a rollercoaster session yesterday, opening with a sharp plunge to around 4600. However, it then began to fluctuate upward, with the European session hitting an intraday high of $4705. But during the US session, much of the gains were given back, and ultimately, the gold price returned to consolidation, closing at $4645, with the daily candle forming a bearish line.

On Tuesday (April 7th), the deadline for Trump’s ultimatum to Iran is approaching, creating a tug-of-war between expectations of a Fed rate cut “at the freezing point.” On one hand, ongoing geopolitical risks continue to support a bottom for gold prices; on the other hand, better-than-expected non-farm payroll data and hawkish statements from Fed officials keep interest rate expectations high, and a strong dollar suppresses the rebound space for gold. Gold is caught oscillating between “safe-haven demand” and “macro suppression.”

It can be said that geopolitical tensions are in a critical window of the “final ultimatum countdown.” Iran has firmly refused a temporary ceasefire, but communication through Pakistan intermediaries continues. If no agreement is reached after the deadline, gold may rebound driven by risk aversion; if there is a breakthrough, a correction could be triggered.

From a technical perspective, this morning’s gold prices saw another dip, with the hourly chart structure shifting downward significantly. The hourly moving averages crossed downward, increasing the risk of further retracement later. Therefore, intraday, gold can temporarily maintain expectations of range-bound oscillation, but also leans more toward a continuation of correction and adjustment. In terms of operations, the main approach today can be to wait and see, pending whether the US and Iran can reach a ceasefire agreement tomorrow. Although the likelihood is low, caution is still necessary, especially as “Trump’s bluff” has become increasingly unreliable, making risk management difficult. For aggressive traders, intraday trading can focus on range oscillation, with short-term long positions near the lows and short positions near the highs, but with an emphasis on high sell and low buy.

In summary, we are waiting for the final ultimatum to be implemented or for the Fed’s meeting minutes and CPI data to be released early Thursday morning. Currently, the bullish and bearish forces are colliding intensely, and the direction remains unclear, so aggressive trading is not advisable. Conservative traders should follow the strategy of buying low and selling high as suggested.

Therefore, the suggested intraday operations are:

Gold: Short at 4650-4645, with a stop loss at 4660, targeting the 4550-4500 range, and holding through breakouts. If it stabilizes above 4670, then consider reversing to long positions, aiming higher step by step.

Key economic data and events to watch today: Tuesday, April 7, 2026

20:30 U.S. February durable goods orders monthly rate

23:00 U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations

00:35 the next day, Fed Governor Goolsbee on monetary policy

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Editor: Chen Ping