💥Vans negotiations break down, Trump issues a warning

The 21-hour negotiation between the US and Iran in Islamabad, Pakistan, ultimately collapsed, with the core disagreement being Iran's refusal to commit to abandoning its nuclear weapons program. Vice President Vans then announced that the US delegation would "return empty-handed." After the news of the breakdown spread, Trump reposted an article titled "If Iran does not compromise, the President holds the 'Trump Card': Maritime Blockade" on social media, and copied and posted the same headline. The article states that if Iran rejects the final US proposal, the President could choose to blow it back to the "Stone Age" or use the maritime blockade strategy previously employed in Venezuela.

Once the news broke, the crypto market reacted swiftly. Bitcoin plummeted from its weekly high above $73,000, dropping to $71,300 at one point. Ethereum fell to around $2,200, and SOL and Dogecoin declined nearly 3%. Over the past 24 hours, more than 100,000 traders were liquidated across the network, with total liquidation amounting to approximately $306 million.

The logic behind this wave of volatility is not complicated. The Strait of Hormuz carries about a quarter of the world's seaborne oil. If a blockade materializes, oil prices are bound to rise rapidly—JPMorgan has previously warned that if the pace of maritime traffic recovery slows, oil prices could approach the $120 peak again. Rising oil prices will boost inflation expectations, forcing the Federal Reserve to delay rate cuts or even revert to tightening, tightening global liquidity, with high-valued, high-risk crypto assets being the first to suffer.

However, Bitcoin's role in such geopolitical conflicts has always been somewhat subtle. On-chain data shows that the largest whales did not sell during the most turbulent phases; instead, they continued buying. Some institutions believe that if the conflict escalates and inflation rises, assets like Bitcoin and gold, which are scarce, could benefit. On the other hand, long-term Bitcoin bears insist that gold is the only true safe haven asset during wartime. If the conflict fully escalates, crypto markets will likely be sold off in tandem with stocks.

Currently, oil prices have rebounded from around $96.57 the previous trading day. The shipping data for the Strait of Hormuz is also worth noting—on Sunday, ships passing through the strait dropped to zero, with only three ships passing on Saturday. Analysts' two scenarios remain valid: if the situation eases and an agreement is reached, Bitcoin could rise back to $80,000; if the conflict continues to escalate, a drop to around $65,000 is not impossible. In a deadlock, every bit of geopolitical news can be amplified into intense volatility by derivatives markets. The only certainty is uncertainty itself.

⚠️ This article is an objective summary of events and market dynamics and does not constitute any investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile; please make independent judgments based on your risk tolerance.
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