What happens if the Strait really gets closed? A single chain explains the global震荡!

Let's do a simple projection:
What would happen if the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked?
Step one: Oil prices rise
Step two: Transportation costs increase
Step three: Inflation expectations heat up
Step four: Policy tightening expectations strengthen
Step five: Risk assets come under pressure
This is a very classic "conduction chain."
But the reality is, we haven't yet reached the extreme version of step one.
Because all parties are controlling the pace, preventing the situation from getting out of control.
That's also why the news keeps bouncing back and forth:
Sometimes it’s positive, sometimes it’s denial.
Essentially, it’s a constant test of the "market’s tolerance."
So, what should we think about?
Very simple:
Don’t just look at the outcome, look at the process.
As long as the blockade is "controllable," the market won't collapse;
Only when it’s out of control will a true one-sided trend appear.
So, at this stage, it’s more like "tug-of-war before the storm."
Opportunities exist, but risks are also present. #美伊停火协议谈判再生变故