I've noticed an interesting pattern in the Bitcoin market over the past few weeks. It seems that major players are not in a hurry to hold positions when the price starts to rise. Whales actively bought BTC at the end of February and early March, when everyone was panicking due to the situation in Iran and the price dropped below 70,000. But as soon as Bitcoin surged to 74,000, they began to sell off en masse. In one day, they withdrew about two-thirds of what they had recently purchased.

At the same time, retail investors continue to buy on dips. Wallets with small balances (less than 0.01 BTC) constantly add to their positions when the price drops. At first glance, it looks like healthy demand, but analysts at Santiment say this is a classic warning sign. When retail is buying and whales are selling, it usually means the correction isn't over yet.

The data on losses is also discouraging. About 43% of the total Bitcoin supply is currently in the red. Every time the price tries to go up, these holders start selling to at least recover their money. At the 74,000 level, exactly this happened — they hit a wall of sellers who either took profits or broke even.

The Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 12 — one of the lowest readings since October. The market is in an extreme fear mode. But here’s the paradox: volatility is huge, yet the net movement over the month is almost zero. Bitcoin was at 60,000 in early February, reached 74,000 in early March, and is now trading around 73,000. The monthly chart looks almost flat despite wild intra-week swings.

This happens because each rise is sold by holders looking to exit, and each dip is bought by retail in hopes of a rebound. It creates an endless cycle that leads nowhere. The Fear and Greed Index reflects this uncertainty — the market is in a wait-and-see mode.

How will this resolve? Two scenarios. Either retail investors exhaust their capital, buying dries up, and Bitcoin drops to support at 60,000. Or the supply runs out, wallets with losses disappear, and BTC breaks above 74,000. The whales’ behavior this week hints that they are betting on the first scenario.

It’s worth noting that even large companies like SpaceX hold significant Bitcoin positions — about 8,300 coins worth roughly $603 million. But even such players are not immune to volatility. The Fear and Greed Index remains low, indicating that most market participants are still not ready for a rally. Maybe whales know something we haven't seen yet.