Just caught something interesting about the incoming Fed chair situation that totally contradicts what markets have been pricing in lately.

So Kevin Warsh, Trump's pick for Fed chair, might be way more dovish than everyone thinks. Robin Brooks from Brookings—the guy who nailed Japan's fiscal crisis predictions—is saying we could see 100 bps in rate cuts before the midterms. That's aggressive. We're talking June through October, four meetings, potentially dropping the Fed rate from 3.5%-3.75% down to 2.5%-2.75%. Way more than the 40 bps the market's currently pricing in.

Here's what's wild: markets totally freaked out last week when Warsh rumors started circulating. Bitcoin dumped from $84,500 to under $75,000 over the weekend. Gold crashed 9%, silver got absolutely wrecked down 26%. Everyone convinced themselves Warsh would be hawkish based on his 2008 track record. But Brooks makes a solid point—Warsh's worst nightmare is probably Trump turning on him like he did Powell. So why would he come in swinging hard on rates?

The narrative Warsh is pushing is actually interesting: AI boom = productivity gains = lower inflation = room to cut. He literally wrote in a WSJ piece that productivity improvements should drive real wage increases. That's the cover story for easier policy, and honestly it tracks.

If this actually plays out—and that's a big if—we're looking at serious dollar weakness and potentially a massive catalyst for crypto. Bitcoin's already bouncing around $73.5K, and if we get 100 bps of cuts confirmed, that changes the entire risk-on story.

Markets got the psychology wrong here. Warsh isn't the inflation hawk everyone feared. He's probably going to be pragmatic about this, and that could absolutely turbocharge the bull case for risk assets. Worth paying attention to the Fed meeting schedule now.