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Just caught something interesting in the options market that caught my eye. There's been massive hedging activity around bitcoin's lower levels, with traders clearly nervous about further downside. The $40,000 strike has become the second option that everyone's watching - about $490 million in notional value sitting there as basically crash insurance.
What's wild is that even though calls still outnumber puts overall, the concentration of these big put bets at lower strikes tells you traders aren't as confident as the call-to-put ratio might suggest. There's roughly $566 million stacked at the $75,000 level which is the max pain point - that's where most options would expire worthless. BTC bounced back to around $73k recently but clearly people are still hedging against another leg down after that brutal selloff earlier.
Looking at the expiry data from major derivatives venues, there's about $7.3 billion in options notional value that was supposed to clear out. The put-to-call ratio sits at 0.72 which means upside bets still dominate, but the second option positioning at $40k shows there's serious demand for downside protection. Basically traders are saying we want exposure to a rebound, but we're not sleeping on the risk of another sharp drop. Classic hedging move when you're uncertain about direction.