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Offshore RMB is at 6.8258, with an intraday range of 6.8213-6.8344
The trend of the RMB this year is completely different from the past few years.
The main theme from 2022 to 2024 is "Dollar strong + China weak = RMB depreciation". Now the main theme has changed—dollar peaks and falls back + China's economy stabilizes + capital flows back to emerging markets.
The 6.8 level is a key node.
Looking downward (RMB continues to appreciate), the driving forces come from: dollar weakening, China's export data consistently exceeding expectations, and northbound capital inflows.
Looking upward (risk of RMB weakening), mainly: high oil prices pushing up import costs, and Iran-U.S. tensions repeatedly causing risk aversion.
For outbound individuals, exchange rates are the most direct variable affecting living costs.
For those earning dollars overseas and spending local currency: RMB appreciation means less money converted back. But if you hold RMB assets, they are appreciating.
For those with income domestically and expenses abroad: RMB appreciation means overseas spending becomes cheaper. The costs of studying abroad, cross-border shopping, and overseas investments are all decreasing.
Actually, my personal prediction is that the RMB will continue to appreciate.