#Gate广场四月发帖挑战 Iran, Crude Oil, and Gold

From February 28 to April 8, after 40 days, the Iran war temporarily came to an end. From the assassination of Khamenei to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and then to U.S.-Iran exchanges of fire, every day has witnessed history.

Looking back at the 40 days of conflict, Iran revealed the true strength of its missile arsenal, exposing America's weaknesses in the Middle East. Trump and the capital behind him profited immensely through his TACO strategy.
TACO: Trump Always Chickens Out. The translation is "Trump always backs down in the face of confrontation." Simply put, it’s a trading strategy that capitalizes on the market’s short-term volatility triggered by Trump’s statements—buying high and selling low. Its core idea is to bet that the market will experience a V-shaped pattern of "panic decline → emotional recovery" due to Trump’s "big mouth."

The war situation changes rapidly, and beyond Trump, no one can predict what will happen. Today, we won’t discuss the war itself; instead, let’s calculate the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the Chinese A-shares, gold, and crude oil. Let’s see who paid the price for America’s support of Iran!

First, here are the charts of crude oil, the Chinese A-shares index, and gold from January 12 to today.

Crude Oil Price:
As seen in the chart, crude oil prices have remained relatively stable around $60 until the U.S.-Iran conflict erupted. Since then, prices surged, reaching a high of $119, nearly doubling. Even after the U.S.-Iran negotiations, oil stayed at a high of around $99.
Historically, every Middle Eastern war has pushed oil prices to new highs, and even when the conflict ends, prices rarely fall back. Therefore, it’s likely that crude oil prices will stay at this level for a long time. (A truly sad story.)

Shanghai Composite Index:
The bullish trend of the Chinese A-shares at the start of 2026 continued from 2025, rising steadily, even reaching a 10-year high of 4,197 points on March 3. However, as the Iran war situation worsened, the index sharply declined. On March 23, it dropped 3.6% in a single day, nearly 10% from the peak—an almost stock market crash. Although it gradually recovered afterward, as of today, it still hovers around 4,000 points, failing to regain the ground lost since January.

Gold Price:
Gold’s trend is similar to that of the A-shares. It hit a record high of 1,256 points on January 29. Since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict, gold has been steadily declining, even dropping 11% in a single day on March 23, creating a "gold pit." Only as tensions eased did gold begin to recover gradually.
Some friends might wonder: as a hard currency and a safe-haven asset, shouldn’t gold become more expensive as the world becomes more chaotic?
Actually, it’s not that simple. In the early stages of war, oil prices rise, causing the prices of oil derivatives and commodities to increase, which fuels inflation expectations. As a result, the U.S. may lower interest rates, the dollar strengthens, and the currency appreciates, leading to a decline in gold prices.
So, for ordinary investors, what lessons can we learn from the fluctuations in crude oil and gold caused by the Iran conflict?
1. The global situation changes rapidly. As ordinary investors, don’t blindly believe online news, and don’t try to predict war developments to chase gains or cut losses. Trump’s TACO strategy only serves Wall Street’s big capital. Using it to speculate on stock movements based on war forecasts is almost like gambling.
2. Gold and crude oil, as commodities, are influenced by war, monetary policy, dollar inflation expectations, and other factors. It’s very difficult for ordinary people to understand the underlying logic of their price movements. Therefore, unless it’s a necessity, it’s not recommended to invest in gold and crude oil.

3. As always, a qualified investor should not be blinded by short-term rises and falls. Instead, focus on the long term, analyze economic cycles, industry trends, and aim for precise investments. Stick to long-term principles, achieve annualized returns, and only then can you enjoy the best final smile.