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The Bitcoin options market is clearly tilting bullish. Seeing the skew indicator sharply rebound from the panic level of -25% in February to +10% suggests that traders are starting to give up on downside hedges. In other words, fewer people are worried about a crash.
Based on current option prices, the estimated probability that BTC will exceed $80,000 by the end of June is about 35%. This indicates that more traders are aiming for higher upside in a way that’s almost like buying a lottery ticket. What’s especially noteworthy is that, over the past few days, the selling of put options has surged across multiple exchanges. In other words, more traders are actively taking on bearish risk to earn premiums. This is evidence that market participants expect price stability or an upward move.
BTC is currently trading around $72,700, up 1.75% this month. Meanwhile, an interesting piece of news is that Bhutan sold about 70% of the roughly 13,000 Bitcoin it held in last October, reducing its holdings to 3,954 BTC. The country that mined with hydropower appears to be pulling back, suggesting it may be due to mining difficulty and price pressure. The moves by such large holders, along with the bullish shift in the cryptocurrency options market, tell a story of how different views are spreading among market participants.