1. Recent Gold Price Trends: Wide Fluctuations at High Levels

In the first quarter of 2026, gold experienced a broad range of "setting new records first, then sharply correcting," with London gold trading between $4,098 and $5,599 per ounce, still up 8% for the quarter. Entering April, gold prices repeatedly oscillated between $4,700 and $4,850, with market sentiment alternately driven by sudden geopolitical conflict escalations and rapid risk premium unwinding.

Key points from recent trading days:

· April 3: U.S.-Iran conflict sharply escalated; after Trump’s tough talk, U.S. oil surged over 13%, gold and silver saw a "stampede-like retreat," and gold prices sharply reversed after touching $4,800.
· April 8: Signals of easing in Middle East tensions caused gold to briefly rise above $4,850; as of the deadline for First Financial reporters, around $4,781, up 1.6%.
· April 9: Spot gold broke through $4,850 but was shaken out, falling back to around $4,713 in early Asian trading.
· April 10: Gold opened near $4,722, dipped to $4,699, then rebounded, and after briefly reaching $4,801 in the early morning, declined again.

As of April 11, the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR, held 1,052.42 tons, unchanged from the previous day, but after three consecutive days of slight net outflows, reflecting cautious market sentiment.

---

2. Technical Outlook: Wide Fluctuations Remain the Main Theme in April

Key levels

· Support: $4,680, $4,600 per ounce
· Resistance: $4,800 (key bull-bear dividing line), $4,830, $4,900 per ounce

Data source: Ruida Futures April 10 technical analysis report

Indicator signals

Although the daily MACD shows a bullish crossover with increasing red bars, both DIF and DEA remain below zero, indicating that bullish momentum is still weak; RSI has broken above the midline but has not entered overbought territory, leaving room for short-term upward testing.

Currently, the market lacks clear direction, with price fluctuations mainly reflecting emotional-driven phase corrections rather than trend-based rises. Multiple resistance levels near and above $4,800 will limit the rebound potential in April.

---

3. Institutional Views: Generally Bullish in the Medium to Long Term, but Short-term Divergence Exists

Mainstream bank target prices

| Institution | Target Price/Forecast | Core Logic |
|--------------|------------------------|--------------|
| JPMorgan | Q4 2026 target at $6,300 (previously $5,055) | Strongly bullish, significantly raised target |
| Goldman Sachs| End-2026 target at $5,400 | Long-term bullish outlook unchanged |
| UBS | Average price in 2026 at $5,000, 2027 at $4,800 | Will continue to rise after short-term consolidation, but watch for correction risks |

Most institutions agree that central bank gold purchases, Fed rate cut expectations, geopolitical risks, and dollar credit uncertainties are long-term drivers supporting gold. However, in the short term, expectations of Fed rate cuts have cooled, and rate hikes are possible alternatives, exerting some pressure on gold prices.

---

4. Summary of Bullish and Bearish Factors

Bullish Factors

1. Continuous central bank gold purchases provide underlying support: From 2022 to 2024, global central banks bought over 1,000 tons annually, with 863 tons in 2025. In the first two months of 2026, net purchases totaled about 31 tons, indicating an expanding group of central banks buying gold.
2. Geopolitical uncertainties: Repeated conflicts involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran, rising trade barriers, supply chain reshoring and nearshoring trends, combined with ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, continue to drive investors to allocate gold for risk diversification.
3. Long-term damage to dollar credibility: Prolonged Middle East conflicts and increased war expenditures have heightened concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability, favoring gold’s medium- and long-term prospects.

Bearish Factors

1. Rising expectations of Fed rate hikes: April FOMC minutes show increasing consensus among policymakers that rate hikes may be needed to combat inflation persistently above 2%. Some economists now see a very low chance of rate cuts this year.
2. Short-term slowdown in central bank gold purchases: In early 2026, global central bank gold buying slowed significantly, with the first two months’ total about half of last year’s same period. Although February saw some rebound, levels remain below the 2025 monthly average.
3. Continued small net outflows from ETFs: From April 7 to 9, SPDR holdings decreased for three consecutive days, with a total outflow of about 3.4 tons, indicating some funds are choosing to stay on the sidelines.

---

5. Summary and Outlook

Overall, gold is currently at a critical juncture of "unchanged long-term allocation logic, short-term mixed signals":

· Short-term (next few weeks): Expect wide fluctuations, with the core trading range between $4,600 and $4,900. The $4,800 level is a key support/resistance dividing line; a breakout above requires new major catalysts from Fed policy or geopolitical developments. A break below $4,680 could lead to further testing of $4,600. Short-term, there remains potential for risk aversion-driven spikes, but caution is needed against sharp pullbacks.
· Medium to long-term: Most institutions believe that once the Fed’s rate cut cycle begins and rate suppression diminishes, gold prices will resume a medium- to long-term upward trend. The current low levels may present a window for medium- and long-term positioning. JPMorgan’s Q4 target of $6,300 and Goldman Sachs’ year-end target of $5,400 reflect strong confidence among mainstream institutions in gold’s future prospects.