[Early Agricultural Products Review] Live Pigs: Recent Month Weakness Continues, Storage Support May Be Short-Term

(Source: Chaos Tiancheng Research)

Early Agricultural Products Review | April 2, 2026

Varieties: Edible oils and fats, rubber, live pigs, apples, cotton, white sugar, red dates

Oils and Fats

Palm Oil:

Yesterday, the main contract of palm oil closed at 9,780 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan/ton, a 1.59% decline; basis: Tianjin 290 (216), Shandong 230 (216), Jiangsu 120 (216), Guangdong 180 (216).

Supply side: SPPOMA data shows that from March 1-31, 2026, Malaysia palm oil yield increased by 5.95% compared to the same period last month; oil extraction rate decreased by 0.13%; production increased by 5.27% month-on-month (previous period down 11.2%); MPOA data from March 1-20 shows Malaysian palm oil production increased by 0.92% month-on-month; AmSpecAgri data indicates Malaysia exported 1,607,065 tons of palm oil products from March 1-31, a 56.7% increase from 1,025,449 tons in the same period last month; Indonesian president called on coal, crude palm, and derivative producers and distributors to prioritize domestic demand before export, and to implement stricter controls on bulk commodity exports; Indonesia’s Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources emphasized implementing the domestic market obligation (DMO) policy, stating that companies failing to meet domestic demand will be denied export licenses; Indonesia’s meteorological agency warned that 2026 is expected to bring a longer and more severe dry season than last year, increasing drought risk; Forestry special working group spokesperson said they have confiscated 5 million hectares of palm plantations and industrial forest permits, 1.7 million hectares of which have been transferred to state-owned enterprise Agrinas Palma Nusantara; Indonesia revoked licenses of 28 companies involved in forestry, plantations, and mining permits covering 1 million hectares (2.47 million acres), citing violations leading to flooding disasters.

Demand side: On April 1, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) stated that considering the B50 biodiesel plan, raw material demand for biodiesel this year is expected to reach about 15 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last year; senior Indonesian minister announced the implementation of B50 biofuel policy starting July 1; Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Bahlil Lahadalia said on March 15 that if global oil supply becomes uncertain due to geopolitical risks, Indonesia may increase biodiesel consumption based on palm oil; Reuters reported on March 30 that President Joko Widodo during his official visit to Japan said Indonesia will continue to promote its palm oil-based B50 biodiesel project this year; APROBI stated on March 12 that the earliest trial operation of B50 biodiesel blend is expected to end by June or July, earlier than the previous target set by the Ministry of Energy; Deputy Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Juliot Tanjung said that due to soaring crude oil prices caused by conflicts in the Middle East, Indonesia may resume the mandatory B50 palm oil biodiesel plan mid-year; US biofuel policy finalized, with a total blending quota of 5.4 billion gallons, slightly below the initial 5.61 billion gallons, but 70% of the exemption volume from 2023-2025 has been redistributed to 2026 and 2027, with US soybean oil consumption for biodiesel reaching 7.6-8.6 million tons in 2026, a 35% increase over about 6 million tons in 2024, leaning bullish; ABIOVE reports that Brazilian biodiesel producers are capable of supporting a 20% blending ratio, and the association urges the government to allow higher blending ratios when demand exists to buffer current energy shocks; Brazil’s law currently mandates a 15% biodiesel blending ratio, using raw materials like soybean oil and tallow; the Brazilian Agriculture and Livestock Confederation (CNA) recently applied to the Ministry of Mines and Energy to raise the mandatory biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 17% to cope with rising international oil prices; the EU Commission has launched public consultation on the draft revision of Regulation (EU) 2019/807, which aims to gradually phase out biofuels produced from palm and soybean oil, with the share of such biofuels decreasing to 71.4% in 2025, 42.8% in 2027, 14.3% in 2029, and from 2030 onwards, only rapeseed oil biodiesel will be eligible for quotas; Italy’s new biofuel regulation has been approved, increasing the mandatory renewable fuel standards for 2030 and lifting the ban on using palm fatty acid distillates, relaxing restrictions on fuels derived from waste cooking oil, and introducing a 10% biodiesel blend; Germany postponed the ban on biofuels made from palm by-products until 2027, boosting future palm oil demand expectations; this week, four ships were purchased in total, and domestic palm oil inventories decreased by 4% week-on-week.

Viewpoint: With expectations of geopolitical easing, crude oil prices retreated from high levels, but fluctuations are still expected; Indonesia’s B50 implementation from July 1, increased raw material demand of 2 million tons, US biofuel policy implementation, strengthened Brazil’s biofuel policy outlook, and delayed US-China talks provide medium- to long-term support for biofuel demand. Short-term drivers remain geopolitical, maintaining high levels, with focus on geopolitical developments and biofuel policies.

Soybean Oil:

Yesterday, soybean oil closed at 8,624 yuan/ton, down 0.51%; basis: Fujian 446 (-8), Guangdong 416 (-8), Jiangsu 316 (-8), Shandong 16 (-158), Tianjin 16 (-158).

Supply side: USDA planting intention report predicts that in 2026, US soybean planting area will be 84.7 million acres, expected by Reuters at 7.6M acres, and the February outlook forum forecast at 85 million acres; CONAB reports that as of March 28, Brazil soybean harvest rate was 74.3%, up from 67.7% last week, and 81.4% at the same time last year, with a five-year average of 72.4%; Brazil’s Ministry of Agriculture announced that negotiations with China on soybean quarantine issues have begun, reducing concerns about import restrictions; Mysteel data shows that as of March 20, Brazil’s port shipment plans for soybeans to China totaled 8.53 million tons, slightly below last week’s 8.66 million but still the highest in recent years, with arrivals expected from mid to late April to early May, and shipments rebounding significantly to ease supply fears; according to CoBank’s latest report, US soybean planting area is expected to increase by nearly 6%, with soybeans competing for farmland with other crops; the National Grain and Oil Confidence Center reports that Brazil’s soybean shipment plans to China have recovered, with some oil mills temporarily shut for maintenance, slightly reducing operational rates.

Demand side: On April 1, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) stated that considering the B50 biodiesel plan, raw material demand for biodiesel this year is expected to reach about 15 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last year; senior Indonesian minister announced the implementation of B50 biofuel policy starting July 1; US biofuel policy finalized, with a total blending quota of 5.4 billion gallons, slightly below the initial 5.61 billion gallons, with 70% of the exemption volume from 2023-2025 redistributed to 2026 and 2027, with US soybean oil consumption for biodiesel reaching 7.6-8.6 million tons in 2026, a 35% increase over about 6 million tons in 2024, leaning bullish; ABIOVE states that Brazilian biodiesel producers are capable of supporting a 20% blending ratio, and urges the government to allow higher ratios when demand exists to buffer energy shocks; the EU has launched public consultation on the draft revision of Regulation (EU) 2019/807, which aims to gradually phase out biofuels from palm and soybean oil, with shares decreasing to 71.4% in 2025, 42.8% in 2027, 14.3% in 2029, and only rapeseed oil biodiesel eligible from 2030; Canada’s latest biofuel incentives explicitly list rapeseed oil as a core raw material; domestic downstream consumption is in seasonal lull, with overall demand weak, and domestic inventories increased by 3.5% week-on-week.

Viewpoint: With expectations of geopolitical easing, crude oil prices retreat from high levels, but fluctuations remain; US biofuel policy implementation, Indonesia’s B50 from July 1, strengthened Brazil’s biofuel outlook, and delayed US-China talks, with short-term drivers still geopolitical, maintaining high levels, focus on geopolitical and domestic port arrivals.

Rapeseed Oil:

Yesterday, rapeseed oil’s main contract closed at 9,720 yuan/ton, down 172 yuan/ton, a 1.74% decline; basis: Guangdong 320 (4), Guangxi 320 (4), Jiangsu 520 (4), Fujian 320 (4).

Supply side: Russia’s rapeseed oil customs clearance process extended; USDA’s latest supply and demand report shows that global rapeseed oil production in 2025/26 is expected to reach a record 95.5 million tons, up about 0.5 million tons from last month and an 11% YoY increase; Statistics Canada reports that rapeseed planting area is about 21.8 million acres, up 0.8% YoY but below the market expectation of 22.3 million acres; on February 28, the Ministry of Commerce officially ruled that imports of Canadian rapeseed are subject to anti-dumping duties of 5.9% for five years starting March 1, 2026; Ukraine’s UAC reports that adverse weather may damage large crop areas, leading to a decrease in Ukraine’s rapeseed yield this year, with winter rapeseed area about 1.1 million hectares, and extreme frosts in January-February may damage up to 300k hectares; APK-Inform estimates Ukraine’s 2026 rapeseed yield forecast lowered from 3.9 million tons last month to 3.7 million tons; Australia raised its rapeseed yield estimate to 6.9 million tons, 400k tons higher than previous estimates; China and Australia signed a memorandum on implementing and reviewing the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement, easing short-term supply concerns.

Demand side: On April 1, Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) stated that considering the B50 biodiesel plan, raw material demand for biodiesel this year is expected to reach about 15 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons from last year; senior Indonesian minister announced the implementation of B50 biofuel policy starting July 1; US biofuel policy finalized, with a total blending quota of 5.4 billion gallons, slightly below the initial 5.61 billion gallons, with 70% of the exemption volume from 2023-2025 redistributed to 2026 and 2027, with US soybean oil consumption for biodiesel reaching 7.6-8.6 million tons in 2026, a 35% increase over about 6 million tons in 2024, leaning bullish; ABIOVE states that Brazilian biodiesel producers are capable of supporting a 20% blending ratio, and urges the government to allow higher ratios when demand exists to buffer energy shocks; the EU has launched public consultation on the draft revision of Regulation (EU) 2019/807, which aims to gradually phase out biofuels from palm and soybean oil, with shares decreasing to 71.4% in 2025, 42.8% in 2027, 14.3% in 2029, and only rapeseed oil biodiesel eligible from 2030; Canada’s latest biofuel incentives explicitly list rapeseed oil as a core raw material; domestic downstream consumption is in seasonal lull, with overall demand weak, and domestic inventories increased by 3.5% week-on-week.

Viewpoint: With expectations of geopolitical easing, crude oil prices retreat from high levels, but fluctuations remain; US biofuel policy implementation, Indonesia’s B50 from July 1, strengthened Brazil’s biofuel outlook, and delayed US-China talks, with short-term drivers still geopolitical, maintaining high levels, focus on geopolitical and domestic port arrivals.

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