The stock price has fallen for 12 consecutive weeks! Today's record of March research on Jiashiye may reveal the truth behind the adjustment

Daily Economic News Reporter: Liu Mingtang Daily Economic News Editor: Ye Feng

After 12 consecutive weeks of decline in 2026, with an annual drop of up to 25.7%! Unknowingly, the once strong regional Baijiu brands, now the main brand of Today Yuen, are experiencing a decisive capital withdrawal! The first trading day after the Qingming Festival ended, Today Yuen released the “Jiangsu Today Yuen Distillery Co., Ltd. Investor Visit Reception Record” ( March 2026 ) , and in this round of external research statements, the true reason for Today Yuen’s “continuous decline” in stock price can be found.

Improvement expectations may come after the second quarter

On the evening of April 7, Today Yuen announced its March institutional research record. Over the past month, 59 institutions including Bosera Fund, Fortis Fund, Penghua Fund, GF Fund, China Merchants Fund, Guotai Haitong Securities, CITIC Construction Investment Securities, and others have conducted business communication with Today Yuen Secretary Wang Weidong.

The “Daily Economic News · Will Enter Wine” reporter noticed that during this research, Today Yuen responded to a total of 28 questions from institutions. Today Yuen believes that the short-term bottom of the Baijiu industry may not have been fully reached yet. As for the company itself, Today Yuen maintains good growth in online channels and outside provinces, but the timing for the core products to return to growth is expected after the second quarter.

Wang Weidong said that from the sales volume perspective, the Baijiu industry may not have fully bottomed out in the short term, but due to the large population base, it is quite close to the bottom. Future consumption trends will show: drinking frequency may increase, but single consumption volume will decrease; the motivation for consumption will shift from “social drinking” to “self-enjoyment drinking.” As social activities change, scenes of independent drinking or small-scale self-entertainment will increase, which is actually a natural return of Baijiu as a daily consumable. For groups with purchasing power, Baijiu is gradually evolving into a normalized consumption that aligns with life rhythm and complements meals for self-enjoyment. This demand resilience will support the industry’s long-term survival.

Of course, the most concerned issue for institutions is when Today Yuen’s operations can turn around. When asked, “How is the market performance of the company’s core products such as Kaikai, Sikai, and Dan Ya?” Wang Weidong replied that Guoyuan Dan Ya performs well and has maintained year-on-year growth in recent years. The decline in Sikai and Kaikai compared to the same period last year has improved month-on-month, and after the second quarter, they are expected to return to growth.

Regarding the structural changes in product price ranges and consumption scenarios, Wang Weidong said, “Under the current market environment, the performance of products at different price points shows structural differentiation. Specifically, the company’s high-end and sub-high-end products are under pressure year-on-year but are expected to reverse after the second quarter; mid- and low-priced products like Dan Ya series and single-keg series show stronger demand resilience.”

Additionally, “As the consumption environment enters a new normal, the structural year-on-year comparison in Q2 and Q3 will improve, but not significantly, and will not return to previous levels. Violations are still under strict regulation, but normal gatherings with friends and compliant social activities are resuming. We expect revenue after the second quarter to achieve positive growth,” said Wang Weidong, Secretary of Today Yuen.

From the three Q&A sessions of Today Yuen, it is not difficult to see that the company’s revenue and net profit are still in a downward trend. Although this aligns with the current Baijiu industry environment, its resilience against cyclical downturns has weakened, leading to a decline in stock attractiveness.

12 Weeks of Continuous Decline Diminishes “Dark Horse” Aura

In fact, if you look at the most dazzling star in the Baijiu market over the past five years, besides the leading Qingxiang-type Shanxi Fenjiu, Today Yuen is definitely an outstanding representative among second- and third-tier liquor companies. Like Fenjiu, it not only maintains stable performance growth but also its stock price has been oscillating at a high level historically, with excellent cyclical resistance.

According to data, from 2021 to 2023, Today Yuen’s annual net profit growth rate has remained around 25%, while most liquor companies have begun to enter an operational inflection point during this period, with slowing net profit growth and even negative growth.

In 2024, many liquor companies began to reveal operational problems, but Today Yuen aligned with Moutai, Wuliangye, and Fenjiu, maintaining a year-on-year net profit growth of 8.8%. Although the growth rate slightly declined, performance remained stable. In the first quarter of 2025, net profit grew 7.27% year-on-year, still a leader among second- and third-tier liquor companies.

Supported by stable growth, since 2021, Today Yuen’s stock price has remained resilient. From 2021 to 2024, it recorded a decline of less than 6% annually for four consecutive years, with a total decline of less than 20% over four years. Its stock performance ranks third among the entire Baijiu industry (excluding *ST Yanshi). During this period, nine other Baijiu stocks declined over 35% cumulatively.

However, in the second quarter of 2025, Today Yuen’s operational situation sharply deteriorated. In Q2, quarterly net profit fell 37% year-on-year; in Q3, it fell 49% year-on-year. Meanwhile, revenue also plummeted in these two quarters.

Affected by the dramatic change in performance, Today Yuen’s stock price also no longer remained resilient. From Q2 2025 to now, the stock has fallen by 50%. Apart from a price increase in the first week of 2026, Today Yuen’s stock price has fallen for 12 consecutive weeks, hitting a near six-year low.

Industry insiders pointed out that as a benchmark enterprise in the previous second- and third-tier Baijiu camp, the significant decline in Today Yuen’s performance and stock price not only breaks its long-standing cyclical growth logic but also reflects new changes during the deep adjustment period of the Baijiu industry. Against the backdrop of increasing industry segmentation and weaker-than-expected recovery in consumer demand, even previously stable-performing liquor companies find it difficult to remain unaffected. The growth pressure on regional liquor companies is further intensifying.

Daily Economic News