How does AI · Trump’s remarks dominate global market sentiment fluctuations?

All the fund annual reports have been disclosed in the past two days, and I’ve looked at the comparison between fund annual returns and weighted average profit margins.

This, to some extent, reflects the indicators of fund profitability and retail investor earnings ability, and will play an increasingly important role and be more valued in the long future.

First, indeed, many funds have taken advantage of market volatility, buying low and selling high on these tech growth funds, resulting in the fund’s weighted average return far exceeding the fund’s own return.

Among them, Yongying High-end Equipment Intelligent Selection, as a representative, has a Class A weighted average net value profit margin of 146%, 50% higher than the fund’s own return; Class C’s weighted average net value profit margin even reached 200%. You really treat Yongying Smart Selection like an ETF.

Market volatility will increase investment difficulty, but if the market can rebound before most people can’t hold on and cut losses (like now’s Nasdaq), then for investors “bottom-fishing” at low levels, volatility is obviously not a big problem.

Second, but regardless, products with high volatility also demand higher trading skills from investors, especially now with complex geopolitical situations, high volatility becomes even more apparent.

Why are low-volatility assets suitable for most people and good for core holdings?

Because the trading difficulty isn’t that high.

Value investors say volatility isn’t risk, but I increasingly feel that for most ordinary investors, high volatility is risk.

High volatility is like a military unit with high casualties; a disciplined army can hold its position even with over 50% casualties, but elite troops are a minority.

Most armies can’t withstand 20% casualties.

Investors are the same—there are those who can lose 50% without changing their face, but for you and me, a 20% drop hurts, a 30% drop scares us, we’ll lie flat, curse, let alone add positions.

So, for us, low-volatility products are easier to generate fund returns, even if in bull markets these funds’ returns aren’t spectacular.

I looked at several funds with longer management histories, comparing their annual returns and weighted average profit margins from 2020 to 2025, from a growth bull market to another growth bull market.

Besides lower volatility, I think another reason these “slow bull” funds have little difference between their weighted profit margins and fund returns is that these “slow bull” funds aren’t stimulating, so their scale remains modest, with no large-scale subscriptions.

And if a fund’s short-term performance is overly explosive, with heavy inflows on the debt side, not only might investors not profit, but the fund manager’s management difficulty also increases significantly.

A slower, steady approach is better.

April Fools’ Day Surge

Back to today’s market, aside from oil, everything surged.

Starting from the rebound in US stocks and gold, global capital markets, along with Trump, entered a state of frenzy.

Even though we all know Trump is unpredictable.

Even though many of Trump’s statements are often just entertainment.

But the entire capital market still follows his social media lead, leading to both bullish and bearish swings.

Every time, we get fooled, but each time it’s different.

Is it because all countries’ quantitative strategies treat Trump’s social media as a source of data, buying TACO when he posts, selling when he heats up?

The market has also become jumpy.

Of course, if certain assets’ volatility clearly rises, it also indicates crowded trading positions, high valuations, and so on.

So isn’t Warren Buffett’s latest interview also saying?

How much can US stocks really adjust? He’s still not rushing to buy the dip.

I also think it’s suitable recently to try grid trading—buy low, sell high—more waiting for the situation to clarify further.

Are midterm elections really that important for Trump?

Another thought: are we overestimating the importance of midterm elections for Trump? Do we think he will definitely consider the capital markets and voters’ opinions when making decisions?

I asked Grok, historically, the president’s party (the ruling party) usually performs poorly in midterms, losing about 25-30 seats in the House and about 4 seats in the Senate on average.

Only a few exceptions, like Clinton in 1998 and Bush Jr. in 2002, benefited due to high approval ratings or major events like 9/11.

So even if the midterms go badly, what can it do to Trump?

And the midterm election day is in November, still 7 months away.

Seven months may be short, but for a market that has daily stories and new emotions, 7 months is quite long—enough to do some big moves during this period.

Is TACO just a delaying tactic?

While the US military gathers forces and releases smoke screens, pretending to negotiate then striking hard— isn’t that a delaying tactic?

Not to mention, take 1973, the Yom Kippur War.

On October 6, 1973 (Yom Kippur), Egypt and Syria’s Arab coalition, equipped by the Soviet Union, suddenly attacked Israel, trying to recapture the Sinai Peninsula and Golan Heights lost in the 1967 Six-Day War.

Initially, due to Israeli intelligence failures, they were caught off guard.

Egypt successfully crossed the Suez Canal, broke through the Bar Lev Line, and Syria advanced in the Golan Heights.

The Israeli Air Force suffered heavy losses, tanks and ammunition on the ground were consumed rapidly, some supplies only enough for 48 hours.

At that time, Israel faced the risk of national extinction.

Then, what happened at this critical moment?

U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger actively pushed for a ceasefire.

In late October, the U.S. pressured Egypt and others through the UN and bilateral channels to accept a “ceasefire on the spot.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. supplied Israel with large amounts of military aid, focusing on tanks (like M60s), 155mm shells, air munitions, F-4 Phantom fighters, etc.

Israel gained a crucial breathing space.

Later in October, they launched counterattacks—crossed the Suez Canal in the Sinai to encircle the Egyptian Third Army; stabilized the Golan Heights in the north. Though this round of fighting caused heavy losses, Israel ultimately won again, and the Arab coalition’s efforts failed once more.

Watching documentaries from that time, it seemed the Arab coalition’s strategy was naive, overly trusting U.S.-Israeli mediation.

So why believe TACO is possible now?

Today is April Fools’ Day, and the market surged on this day.

What does it mean?

Can TACO really happen if you want it?

I believe Trump now regrets being dragged into this by Israel, and I also believe he genuinely wants TACO.

His original plan might have been targeted assassinations + supporting surrender factions—this worked very well in Venezuela, then he planned to do the same in Iran and Cuba.

And after controlling Latin America’s backyard and the Middle East’s oil routes, he would visit China