Everbright Futures: Agricultural Products Daily Report for April 7

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Edible Oils and Oilseeds: Increased Uncertainty in the Middle East   Oilmeal Faces Directional Choices

(Hou Xueling, Professional Qualification Number: F3048706; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013637)

The market continues to be macro-priced. During the holiday, the situation in the Middle East changed again. Indirect negotiations between the US and Iran are ongoing, and all signs indicate that Middle East conflicts are easing, and the probability of the Strait of Hormuz resuming transportation has increased. The market’s timeline is set for April 6, mid to late April, and May. If a ceasefire agreement is reached, then the prices of crude oil, oils, and oilseeds may face a correction risk, and the market will partially give back previous high premiums. At that time, palm oil will perform weaker than soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and oils will perform weaker than protein meal. But if the situation remains tense, crude oil prices will stay above $100 with high volatility, and due to expectations of rising biodiesel demand and declining inventories at producing regions, the price center will continue to move upward, with imported products outperforming domestic ones. Palm oil will outperform soybean oil and rapeseed oil, and oils will outperform protein meal.

In other themes, Brazil, India, the EU, and others are actively seeking solutions for fertilizer issues, and the fertilizer crisis impact is weakening. Argentina’s soybean harvest has begun, increasing South American soybean supply. China and other countries are slowing procurement, but US soybean export pressure remains significant. However, after the implementation of US soybean policies, domestic crushing demand increases, and market attention shifts to raw material choices for the soybean crushing industry. Global soybean prices have moved downward, but US soybean prices remain volatile at high levels. Domestic pig prices continue to decline, with unclear bottoms, and the industry is accelerating capacity reduction. Soybean meal terminal demand expectations are declining, and with weak supply and demand in April, inventory reduction is limited, leading to negative basis and unilateral prices. The main strategy for protein meal this month is a reverse spread.

Eggs: Egg-laying hen stocks increase month-on-month, continuing to pressure egg prices

(Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013544)

1. This week, the main April 2605 egg futures contract continued to fluctuate within the range. After rebounding to the upper end of the range last week, it pulled back at the start of the week. On Tuesday, Zhuochuang Information released March monthly data, showing that China's laying hen stocks continued to slightly increase month-on-month. Supply-side data continues to pressure egg prices, and on Wednesday, the main contract 2605 saw a larger pullback. Overall, egg futures prices continue to fluctuate within the range.

2. This week, spot egg prices declined. Driven by Qingming holiday stocking, market demand improved, and spot egg prices rebounded, reaching a seasonal high at the weekend. As Qingming approaches and downstream stocking nears completion, market sales slow down, and spot egg prices have pulled back. As of April 3, Zhuochuang statistics show the average daily price of brown eggs in China at 3.27 yuan per jin, down 0.07 yuan from last week, with a high point at the weekend down 0.15 yuan. Currently, supply still exerts pressure on egg prices.

3. The latest monthly data from Zhuochuang shows that as of March 31, China's laying hen stocks totaled 1.35B, an increase of 4M from the previous month, up 0.29% month-on-month. Short-term supply is sufficient, combined with the end of pre-holiday stocking, demand has fallen back, and egg prices have rebounded to a high point before pulling back. The sample enterprises' monthly hatchling output was 46.06 million, continuing to increase month-on-month. Based on historical restocking data, before July, the addition of new laying hens will continue to increase. On the other hand, the culling of old hens has increased significantly; as of April 2, Zhuochuang’s sample points report weekly culling of 21.83 million old hens, at a high level for two consecutive weeks. If culling continues at this high level or increases, capacity will be further released, otherwise supply will continue to pressure egg prices. Before substantial improvement in supply, the expectation is for egg prices to fluctuate within a range, with attention to changes in breeding intentions affecting supply. Additionally, monitor opportunities for longer-term contracts after main contracts roll over, according to current exchange margin rules.

Corn: Policy-driven grain supply, corn futures decline within range

(Wang Na, Professional Qualification Number: F0243534; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0001262)

External Market: This week, CBOT grain markets were affected by USDA planting intentions report, crude oil weakening then strengthening, weak exports, and drought concerns, resulting in overall volatile downward movement, with divergence among varieties. CBOT May corn contracts initially rose then fell, with a decline of nearly 2%. USDA released a forecast of 95.3 million acres of corn planting for 2026, down 3% year-on-year but above market expectations. Coupled with crude oil retreat dragging ethanol demand, corn prices were pressured. Wheat May contracts fluctuated sharply, closing down about 1% for the week. Despite USDA predicting the lowest wheat planting area since 1919, weekly wheat net sales were only 24k tons, a new low for the year, and weak exports offset the planting area benefits, causing prices to spike then fall sharply.

Domestic Market: This week, national corn prices weakened slightly. As of April 2, the average weekly price was 2,412 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton from last week. Northeast corn prices fell by 10-20 yuan/ton; after the purchase prices at North Port and deep processing declined, some farmers and vendors sold grain, but drying tower grain sources were limited. North China corn prices were generally weak. After rising to high levels earlier, traders took profits. Deep processing inventories continued to rise, with cautious procurement based on demand. Corn in sales areas fluctuated slightly weaker, with weak demand and regional differences. Cost support remains strong, but demand is weak, and market sentiment is cautious. Futures: the nearby May 2605 contract declined, with prices falling back from the 2400 yuan level. Under the pressure of wheat auctions and rice supply pressures, overall grain futures are weak.

Swine: Prices continue to decline, futures fluctuate in search of bottom

(Kong Hailan, Professional Qualification Number: F3032578; Trading Consultation Qualification Number: Z0013544)

1. This week, live pig spot prices continued to weaken, with a slight rebound midweek. As of April 2, the average price was 9.24 yuan/kg, down 0.14 yuan/kg from last week; in Henan, the benchmark area, pig prices were 9.28 yuan/kg, down 0.25 yuan/kg. Domestic pig prices showed a pattern of decline, rise, then decline again. Early in the week, due to month-end and month-start transitions, and the resurgence of secondary fattening in low-price areas, pig prices were supported, stopping the decline and rebounding; later in the week, as slaughtering resumed and some operators reduced weights, market supply was ample. However, downstream demand was moderate, causing prices to stabilize then decline.

2. Zhuochuang data shows that as of April 2, the average piglet price was 234 yuan per head, down 44 yuan from last week. Piglet supply remains ample. However, with continued losses in fattening, downstream restocking enthusiasm is low, and sow farms are slow to sell piglets, leading to continued price declines.

3. As of April 2, Zhuochuang’s sample points report average slaughter weight at 125.85 kg per head, down 0.04 kg from last week. Weekly transaction weights across provinces are gradually decreasing. As pig prices continue to fall and losses increase, some breeders accelerate slaughtering. Meanwhile, slaughterhouses are reducing purchases of low-quality large pigs, and average purchase weights have slightly decreased.

4. Wind data shows that on March 25, the government website announced a pig-to-grain ratio of 4.23.

5. Zhuochuang data shows that as of April 2, self-breeding and self-rearing profits were -332 yuan per head, an increase of 16 yuan from last week; piglet fattening profits were -236 yuan per head, an increase of 21 yuan. Early in the month, slaughter volume decreased, and combined with increased restocking in low-price areas, pig prices temporarily rebounded. In the later part of the week, as slaughtering resumed and weights continued to decrease, pig prices stopped rising and declined, with the weekly average price continuing to fall. Although feed costs slightly decreased this week, the ongoing weakness in live pig prices further widened losses.

6. According to MOFCOM statistics, in February 2026, slaughter volume of large-scale designated pig slaughter enterprises was 31.77 million, down 27% month-on-month but up 45% year-on-year.

7. This week, slaughterhouse operating rates increased week-on-week. Zhuochuang data shows that as of April 2, the operating rate was 37.16%, up 0.83 percentage points from last week. Breeders are actively slaughtering, supply is abundant, and low pork prices support downstream demand slightly. Orders at slaughterhouses are slowly increasing, and some slaughterhouses are storing pigs, supporting the continued rise in operating rates.

8. Based on dual analysis of live pig futures and spot markets, the weak bottoming process continues. Overall, the abundant supply continues to pressure pig prices, increasing the duration and cycle of bottom consolidation, with a continued weak outlook for pig prices.