Brothers, this US-Iran drama is more exciting than a TV series. Just less than a day after saying a ceasefire, the Strait of Hormuz was closed by Iran. Want to pass the oil tanker? Not a chance. One second they call it a "historic victory," and the next second they slap their own face. Who can handle this rhythm?

What the market fears most is not the conflict itself, but this unpredictable up-and-down rhythm. You have no idea how oil prices will move next. Relying on intuition to trade? Get ready to be thrown out in the blink of an eye.
How to view it in the short term? It's simple: as long as the strait is blocked, supply will tighten directly, and oil prices will definitely go up. How much will they rise? How long will the increase last? It all depends on Iran's mood and the progress of negotiations. If it's just minor skirmishes, prices may rise quickly and then fall back; if the conflict escalates and the channel is completely restricted, then it will be a new trend market.
Looking at the market response, after several rounds of turbulence, many funds have become cautious. Even if oil prices spike, it won't be like the first time when everyone blindly rushed in; instead, they are observing while entering the market gradually.