U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations begin, gold prices break through $4,800, focus on gold allocation opportunities

The launch of US-Iran ceasefire talks has triggered a rotation of market assets, and gold prices have strengthened against the trend, drawing significant attention to related investment opportunities. It is understood that the US and Iran have officially reached a two-week ceasefire consensus, and talks are set to begin on April 10. The easing at the margin of geopolitical risks in the Middle East has driven a sharp drop in crude oil prices.

Meanwhile, spot gold has risen against the trend. Gold ETF E Fund (159934) is up nearly 3% intraday, and London gold has successfully held above the $4,800 per ounce level, creating a notable divergence from oil prices. Related A-share stocks also moved higher. As of the close on April 8, Xiaocheng Technology (300139.SZ) rose by more than 16%, Hunan Silver (002716.SZ), Hunan Gold (002155.SZ), Sichuan Gold (001337.SZ), Western Gold (601069.SH), and Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ) hit the daily limit, while Zijin Mining (601899.SH), Shandong Gold (600547.SH), and China Gold (600489.SH) also followed higher. The core logic behind this round of gold-price gains is that falling oil prices cool inflation expectations; market funds rotate from energy assets to precious metals, boosting gold demand.

Behind the gold price strength against the trend is clear logical support: the US-Iran ceasefire rapidly removes oil-supply risks stemming from geopolitical conflict. The oil price drop that followed effectively eases the market’s concerns about inflation, which in turn further heats up market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, after geopolitical risks are quickly resolved, some safe-haven funds withdraw from U.S. dollar assets, causing the U.S. dollar index and real interest rates to weaken in tandem. This significantly increases the appeal of gold priced in U.S. dollars, ultimately resulting in a differentiated trend—oil prices falling while gold rises—bringing a phased positive outlook for gold assets.

From an investment perspective, in the short term, marginal changes in the US-Iran negotiation process and the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy path will continue to create two-way disruptions to gold prices, and the market may maintain a high-volatility pattern. But in the medium to long term, with the global de-dollarization trend deepening and greater certainty that real interest rates will decline during the inflation-down cycle, there is room for gold’s investment demand to recover upward. At the current point in time, it is suitable to step-by-step deploy using ETF tools to smooth risks of short-term volatility. Combined with April being a traditionally strong seasonal window for gold, the allocation value-for-money of gold assets continues to improve.

Investors may focus on Gold ETF E Fund (159934). This ETF precisely tracks gold price movements, enabling investors to conveniently capture investment opportunities arising from gold price fluctuations. It is a high-quality tool for ordinary investors to allocate gold assets and hedge against market volatility, helping investors efficiently seize the current allocation window for the gold sector.