Ceasefire eases supply concerns, Goldman Sachs lowers Q2 oil price forecast but warns that extreme risks still exist

ME News message, April 9 (UTC+8). After the United States and Iran reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, Goldman Sachs cut its forecast for oil prices in Q2 2026: Brent crude was lowered from $99 to $90 per barrel, and WTI crude from $91 to $87 per barrel. The firm said the ceasefire drove down the risk premium, along with the gradual recovery of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which were the main reasons for the downgrade. Affected by this, Brent fell as much as about 11% at one point this Monday. However, Goldman Sachs kept its oil price forecasts for the second half of the year unchanged and emphasized that uncertainty on the supply side remains high: If a Middle East supply disruption continues and production losses intensify, then in an extreme scenario Brent crude could rise to $115 per barrel. In addition, Goldman Sachs also lowered its forecast for European TTF natural gas prices to €50 per MWh, but warned that if LNG transport is disrupted, gas prices could still rebound to above €75. Overall, the ceasefire provides short-term relief to market tensions, but in the energy markets the medium- to long-term outlook is still driven by geopolitics, and volatility risk remains significant. (Source: BlockBeats)