CITIC Futures: Divergence in future demand expectations leads to volatile lithium prices

K-LinePoet · 2026-04-08T15:08:03+00:00

The lithium carbonate market fundamentals in March remain strong, with supply and demand staying tightly balanced. Although supply and demand recovered after the Spring Festival and demand is active, attention should still be paid to new energy vehicle sales. It is expected that in the second quarter, the supply and demand balance will be affected, and prices may fluctuate.

K-LinePoet

2026-04-08 15:08:03

Abstract generation in progress

In March, lithium carbonate fundamentals remain relatively strong, but the subsequent performance at the end-market still needs to be observed. Since 2026, supply has remained relatively robust; although some companies have reduced output due to maintenance and inspections, overall it is still at a high level. At the same time, demand performance has been fairly good. After downstream prices pulled back, buyers have been actively restocking, and supply and demand continue to remain in a tight balance, with social inventory seeing some drawdown. After the Spring Festival, both supply and demand sides have recovered to some extent. The strong demand performance in March and Zimbabwe’s ban on lithium ore exports have provided a clear lift to market sentiment, but sales of new energy vehicles in January and February have not been encouraging. It remains to be further validated in March and April, and this is a key factor affecting the supply-demand balance in the second quarter; before then, prices are expected to trade in a range with volatility.

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