Next week's macro outlook: The sixth week of the war, Trump's script is about to collapse, CPI will surge, and gold prices may stage a big show

ME News update, on April 4 (UTC+8), the United States released its nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, showing that the country added 178k jobs, well above expectations. At the same time, February’s data was revised downward further—from the initially estimated decline of 92k to a decline of 133k. Against the backdrop of reduced odds of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026, the report provided short-term support for the U.S. dollar. The Iran war has entered its sixth week, and the Trump “quick-win” script is now moving toward collapse. The market’s more critical test is also coming: the first CPI after the outbreak of hostilities is about to be released, and inflation could easily run out of control. Some people are warning that “now is not the time to trade.” Below are the key points the market will focus on in the new week (all times are Beijing time): Monday 22:00, the U.S. March ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; Tuesday 23:00, the U.S. March New York Fed 1-year inflation expectations; Wednesday 00:35, 2027 FOMC voter and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee speaking on monetary policy; Thursday 02:00, the Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting; Thursday 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims, U.S. February core PCE price index (YoY), U.S. February personal spending (MoM), the final Q4 real GDP annualized QoQ growth rate, the final Q4 real personal consumption expenditures QoQ growth rate, the final Q4 core PCE price index (annualized QoQ) growth rate, and U.S. February core PCE price index (MoM); Friday 20:30, the U.S. March unadjusted CPI YoY/core CPI YoY, and U.S. March seasonally adjusted CPI MoM/core CPI MoM. Friday 22:00, the initial U.S. April 1-year inflation rate expectation, the initial U.S. April University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, and U.S. February factory orders (MoM) (Source: PANews)