Oil prices are a bit like having just experienced an emotional outburst.

A few days ago, it was still at 141, and everyone was discussing the energy crisis and runaway inflation, with tension in the air; then suddenly, a ceasefire was announced, and prices dropped straight back to around 90. Market sentiment shifted from "the world is going to explode" to "maybe it's not that bad."
But here's the problem—
👉 Emotions can reverse, but reality won't change immediately.
Oil prices have fallen, but the previous surge in prices has already pushed up costs. Many prices won't drop right away; instead, they'll gradually reflect the change over time.
You can think of it like this:
Oil prices are "immediate reactions,"
Inflation is "delayed settlement."
So what we're seeing now is just the end of the first phase of the market cycle; the subsequent accounting hasn't started yet.
Looking at supply, the previous aggressive production cuts can't be reversed just like that. Prices have only eased temporarily, but underlying supply remains tight. If the situation fluctuates again, oil prices could be reignited at any moment.
This stage feels very much like a brief "cooling-off period."
Everyone appears to be taking a breath, but in reality, everyone is waiting for the next move.
If the ceasefire can hold steady, the market will gradually digest this shock;
But if it's just a delay, then this current dip might just be space created for the next rally.
To put it simply:
👉 Falling oil prices don't mean the risks are gone; they just continue to exist in a different form.