Oil prices are a bit like experiencing an emotional outburst.

A few days ago, they were still at 141, and everyone was discussing the energy crisis and soaring inflation, with tension in the air; then, suddenly, a ceasefire was announced, and prices dropped straight back to around 90. Market sentiment shifted from "the world is going to blow up" to "maybe it's not that bad."

But here's the problem—
👉 Emotions can reverse, but reality won't change immediately.

Oil prices have fallen, but the previous surge in prices has already pushed up costs. Many prices won't drop right away; instead, they will gradually reflect the change over time.

You can think of it like this:
Oil prices are "immediate reactions,"
Inflation is "delayed settlement."

So what we're seeing now is just the end of the first phase of the market cycle; the subsequent adjustments haven't started yet.

Looking at supply, the previous aggressive production cuts can't be reversed instantly. Prices have only eased temporarily, but underlying supply remains tight. If there’s any further turbulence, oil prices could reignite at any moment.

This stage feels very much like a brief "calm period."

Everyone appears to be breathing a sigh of relief on the surface, but in reality, they’re all waiting for the next move.

If the ceasefire can hold steady, the market will gradually digest this shock;
But if it’s just a delay, then this current decline might just be making room for the next rally.

In simple terms:

👉 When oil prices fall, it doesn’t mean the risks are gone; it just means they continue to exist in a different way. #WTI原油暴跌