The current core factors influencing the international market remain centered on the Middle East situation, the U.S. policy stance, and changes in energy prices, while these factors are continuously affecting the operating rhythm of global risk assets. After the Strait of Hormuz resumed normal navigation, short-term market tension and worry eased somewhat, but the true uncertainty has not been fully eliminated. On April 8, the United States and Iran entered a new round of negotiations, and international oil prices declined noticeably as a result, indicating that market concerns about the expansion of conflict in the short term have temporarily decreased, and global capital’s risk appetite has also been somewhat restored.

In the next one to two weeks, the focus will still be on whether the negotiations can be advanced smoothly. If the situation continues to remain stable afterward, international oil prices are expected to stay at high levels with range-bound movement, or even decline further, easing global liquidity pressure and providing some support for risk assets; but if there are further reversals during the negotiations, especially if the safety of transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is affected again, oil prices are very likely to rise quickly once more, and investors’ risk-avoidance sentiment will rapidly heat up.

For the crypto market, the impact of this international situation is very direct. At present, Big Cake and Ethereum can maintain consolidation at high levels, largely because short-term macro risks have cooled somewhat, and funds have returned to mainstream assets. If the international situation continues to stabilize, Big Cake is still expected to maintain strong, range-bound strength, and Ethereum will also follow the mainstream pace to continue operating somewhat positively; but once the Middle East situation escalates again, market funds will prioritize reducing risk exposure, and mainstream coins will likewise face significant selling pressure in the short term.

In addition, it is also necessary to pay attention to the policy signals released by the U.S. afterward, especially statements regarding the Middle East issue and economic policy. Because each change in attitude directly affects the linkage among the U.S. dollar, gold, and the crypto market. What the international situation superficially affects is energy; in reality, it determines whether global funds are willing to continue staying in risk markets. #Gate广场四月发帖挑战 $BTC