Analysis: A cluster of Polymarket accounts profited approximately $600k from predicting the US-Iran ceasefire event.

CoinNetwork · 2026-04-08T08:20:27+00:00

Bubblemaps detected that a group of Polymarket accounts earned about $600,000 by predicting a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, and they continued to bet on a ceasefire, with total profits reaching $563,000. Their account names are frequently changed, and they perform exceptionally well in predicting future events related to Iran, suggesting they may have access to reliable information.

CoinNetwork

2026-04-08 08:20:27

Abstract generation in progress

CoinMarketCap news: According to monitoring by Bubblemaps, last night the same group of Polymarket accounts profited about $600,000 by predicting a U.S.-Iran ceasefire; afterwards, they changed their account names. In addition, these accounts have continued to place bets on the ceasefire, and in the predictions dated April 7 and April 15, they placed $25,000 (probability 6%) and $75,000 (probability 15%), respectively, for total profits of about $563,000.

One month ago, Bubblemaps connected four Polymarket on-chain accounts with very high win rates. The prediction results included: the U.S. launching a retaliatory strike on Iran on February 28, 2026; Israel launching the “Rising Lion” operation against Iran on June 13, 2025; and the U.S. attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, among others, on June 21, 2025. This cluster also kept changing account names. Although its ceasefire predictions were not completely accurate, its prior predictions about the retaliatory strike against Iran performed well, suggesting it may have access to more reliable information.

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