Soaring! The precious metals sector leads the rally, with double benefits driving the recovery trend

In the early session on April 8, gold and precious metals led the way as the industry opened higher and then surged, rallying the most among A-share sector indices. By the close of the morning session, the sector had jumped 8.81%.

As for individual stocks, Xiaocheng Technology rose more than 13%, Western Gold, Industrial Securities Silver and Tin, and Zhaojin Gold hit the daily limit. Hunan Silver and Sichuan Gold rose more than 9%, while Zijin Mining, Hunan Gold, and Shan Jin International rose more than 8%. Shengda Resources, Chifeng Gold, Shandong Gold, Hanhong Shares, and others all gained more than 6%.

Oil prices plunge as precious metals rebound

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, April 8—In a social media post made on the evening of April 7 (U.S. Eastern Time), U.S. President Donald Trump said, “I agree to pause the bombing and attack operations against Iran for two weeks.” Multiple U.S. media outlets reported that, under a two-week ceasefire agreement, U.S. airstrikes on Iran have already been suspended. Israel also agreed to suspend bombing operations during the Iran-U.S. negotiations.

CCTV News, citing a statement issued in the early hours of April 8 (local time) by Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, said that, based on the advice of the Supreme Leader and with approval from the Supreme National Security Council, Iran accepted a ceasefire proposal submitted by Pakistan. A report from the Secretariat of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council said that negotiations with the United States would begin on April 10 in Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, for a period of two weeks.

After the news was released, in the early session on April 8, WTI crude oil opened lower and slid further, at one point falling by nearly 20%. As of the time of publication, it was at $95.91 per barrel, down 15.09%. Precious metals rebounded sharply. As of the time of publication, COMEX gold was at $4,833.7 per ounce, up 3.18%; COMEX silver was at $76.560 per ounce, up 6.35%.

Guojin Securities pointed out that historical experience shows that in a stagflation environment, gold usually performs relatively well. However, in this round of the market, pricing has been concentrated on inflation factors in advance while overlooking the pressure of the “stagnation” side. The U.S. economy has already shown signs of weak growth, and high oil prices could further accelerate the arrival of a downturn. If economic stagnation and declines in the capital markets create a resonance effect, the mismatch in liquidity expectations could become a trigger for gold’s rebound. Looking long term, it has become a market consensus that America’s overall national strength will shift from strength to decline; gold is expected to enter a new bull market cycle.

The central bank has increased its gold holdings for 17 consecutive months

In addition to the news of a ceasefire in the Middle East, the market has also been highly focused on China’s central bank increasing its gold holdings for 17 consecutive months.

The data released by the People’s Bank of China on April 7 showed that gold reserves at the end of March were 74.38 million ounces (about 2,313.48 tons), up 0.16 million ounces quarter-over-quarter, marking the 17th consecutive month of increased gold holdings. The size of the monthly increase also hit a high for nearly one year. Since China restarted increasing holdings in November 2022, its official gold reserves have increased by a total of 314 tons.

Recently, some central banks in certain countries have sold gold, raising market concerns about whether the logic behind accumulating gold has changed. The market worries that central banks may sell gold due to factors such as rising inflation and pressures from currency depreciation.

Turkey’s central bank released data showing that, for the week ending March 28, the country’s gold reserves decreased by 69.1 tons, and over the past two weeks the cumulative decline was 118.4 tons. Of this, more than half was carried out through gold-for-foreign-exchange swap transactions—i.e., using gold as collateral to obtain U.S. dollar liquidity, then redeeming it at maturity.

Russia’s central bank began selling gold as early as January of this year. According to statistics from the World Gold Council, in January 2026 the Russian central bank sold 9 tons of gold, becoming the largest net seller of the month; in February it continued to be a net seller of 6 tons. In early March, Poland’s central bank—one of the large gold buyers—proposed selling part of the assets in its gold reserves to raise up to about $13 billion to support defense construction.

Jia Xiaoqing, chief fixed-income analyst at Jinyuan Securities, believes that since March, some central banks have shown staged net gold-selling behavior, reflecting gold’s monetary attribute. The essence of selling gold via swaps is more like a short-term financing operation rather than a trend of reducing holdings. Given gold’s global pricing characteristics, over the medium term there is still a possibility that gold prices will realign in a positive linkage with central bank gold hoarding.

Gold stocks undergo deep adjustment over the past two months

After COMEX gold hit a historical high of $5,626.8 per ounce on January 29 this year, A-share precious metals sector stocks began to fluctuate and drift lower. In addition, after the outbreak of Middle East geopolitical conflicts in mid-March, market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed within the year declined, leading to further adjustments in gold prices.

According to 东方财富Choice data, from January 30 to the noon session on April 8, the A-share precious metals sector index cumulatively fell by 27.64%. Among constituent stocks, they adjusted collectively. Hunan Silver had the largest decline, falling cumulatively by 41.18%. Zhaojin Gold, Hanhong Shares, Western Gold, Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and others ranked among the top decliners, all down more than 30%.

CITIC Securities said that whether it is geopolitical conditions being downgraded leading to a pullback in oil prices, or monetary policy returning to a more accommodative stance, or whether supply shocks intensify economic recession pressures—thereby triggering gold’s safe-haven attribute—both gold’s investment demand and its price have room to be repaired upward.

（Source: 东方财富 Research Center）