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Hong Kong Stock Market Movement | Non-ferrous metal stocks continue to rebound, falling oil prices may once again trigger interest rate cut expectations, and domestic copper and aluminum inventories continue to decline.
Zhitoong Finance APP learned that shares of non-ferrous metals continued to rebound. As of the time of writing, Luoyang Molybdenum Industry (03993) was up 10.5%, trading at HK$18.74; Minmetals Resources (01208) was up 10.57%, trading at HK$8.37; Jiangxi Copper Company Limited (00358) was up 9.08%, trading at HK$37.96; Zijin Mining (02899) was up 7.93%, trading at HK$38.12.
On the news front, the two sides of Iran and the U.S., mediated by Pakistan, reached a two-week temporary ceasefire agreement, triggering a sharp drop in international crude oil futures. A research report previously released by Guotai Haitong Securities said that if the geopolitical situation eases afterwards, oil prices would basically stabilize, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts could see a reversal—from the current stance of no rate cut, and even a potential rate hike, to a new expectation of rate cuts—at which point U.S. stocks and U.S. Treasuries may see a turning point.
Orient Securities said that the market had already begun to partially correct the earlier “recession trade” last week, with both precious metals and industrial metals prices showing clear rebounds. As the stagflation trade continues, excess returns in precious metals may gradually start to show, while industrial commodities will continue to trade within a range. The firm noted that the Middle East conflict affects the production and transportation of inputs such as sulfur for electrolytic aluminum and copper raw materials; supply support still remains, while domestic copper and aluminum inventories continue to be reduced, indicating that due to price adjustments and downstream procurement gradually picking up driven by seasonal demand, the real supply-demand situation for each product may determine the price floor during the period of sideways trading.